Here’s what to expect when you’re expecting a savior: a mixed record. When it comes to the 25 quarterbacks drafted in the top five since 1990, there have been eight busts and 12 All-Pros and/or Pro Bowlers. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, who will be picked first and second, respectively, Thursday, someday will join one of these lists.
Busts » Eight of the 25 land in this category, never being considered quality starters. It’s a who’s-who of bad QB play: Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, JaMarcus Russell and David Carr. Five of these players were either the first or second pick in the draft. Injuries and a poor supporting cast could be blamed in some cases, but not all.
All-Pro » It’s a short list. Only three from this group have been named All-Pro: Drew Bledsoe (twice), Peyton Manning (five) and Steve McNair (once). Manning has been named NFL MVP four times, while McNair earned that honor once. In fact, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, of the seven players who were selected All-Pro between 2002 and 2011, only two were selected in the top five of the draft.
Pro Bowlers » In addition to the All-Pros, nine of these quarterbacks have made at least one Pro Bowl: Donovan McNabb (six), Philip Rivers (four), Michael Vick (four), Eli Manning (two), Vince Young (two), Kerry Collins (two), Carson Palmer (two), Matt Ryan (one), Cam Newton (one).
No honors » Four haven’t yet made a Pro Bowl, let alone were named All-Pro. Three were drafted in the last four years, so their books are hardly closed: Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford. Alex Smith also is on the list. And so is former No. 1 overall pick Jeff George, who threw 154 touchdown passes in his career (to 113 interceptions) yet never made a Pro Bowl.
Hall of Famers » Of the 39 quarterbacks drafted in the top five since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only three have landed in the Hall of Fame: Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Troy Aikman. All were drafted before 1990. Peyton Manning clearly will join them one day, but nobody else is a lock at this point.
One more note: Thanks to the Cleveland Plain Dealer for pointing out where the seven QBs who were named All-Pros between 2002-11 were drafted. Of those seven, only two (Peyton Manning, first; Steve McNair, third) were picked in the top five while the other five were picked between 24 and 199. And the only other first-rounder on this list was Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (24th). The overriding point? It’s tough to find great quarterbacks. Will both Luck and Griffin become one? It’ll be fun watching how it unfolds.
– John Keim
