NFL playoffs: Conference title games

Published January 22, 2010 5:00am ET



AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMEJets at ColtsLucas Oil Stadium, Sunday, 3 p.m., CBSDid you know …The Colts’ run offense ranked 32nd during the regular season (80.9 yards) and were 30th in yards per carry (3.5). But are they that bad? Rookie Donald Brown missed five games with an injury while Joseph Addai started slow. Line changes were made and, in the last nine games, Addai averaged 3.9 yards per carry or more six times. Last week vs. Baltimore he averaged just 2.1 yards a run, but he had 40 yards on six carries vs. the Jets in Week 16 (Brown went 15-22). The Colts don’t rely on the run — no back rushed for 100 yards in a game — but must have it in short-yardage situations. Game changer:Dwight Freeney or Darrelle Revis?Would you rather have the shutdown corner or the elite defensive end? In the AFC Championship Game, both teams have one or the other. The Jets have the shutdown corner in Darrelle Revis (nephew of ex-Redskin Sean Gilbert), who has allowed one touchdown catch this season. Because he dominates receivers, the Jets can be more aggressive. But the Colts counter with end Dwight Freeney, who changes games with his speed off the edge. The All-Pro end has 131⁄2 sacks this season. But given what the opposing offenses want to do — the Jets want to run; the Colts want to pass — Revis’ impact could be greater.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMEVikings at SaintsLouisiana Superdome, Sunday 6:40 p.m., FOXDid you know …In Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson’s last eight games he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and his longest run has been 23 yards; he had six games in his first nine in which he had one run of at least 27 yards. Also, in this span, as defenses stack the line to stop him, he’s averaged 3.4 yards or less five times. And he’s averaged only 3.6 yards per carry against teams that finished with a winning record. His line is not great at run-blocking. But the key for Peterson is to show more patience, press the hole enough to force New Orleans’ aggressive linebackers to commit, then cut back. Game changer:Brett Favre or Drew Brees?The impossible task when it comes to the NFC Championship Game is to decide which team has the edge at quarterback. Do you want the budding Hall of Famer (Drew Brees) or the certain one (Brett Favre)? Favre has thrown a career-low seven interceptions this season. His regular-season passer rating was 107.2 compared to Brees’ 109.6. Brees averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt to Favre’s 7.9. Both have thrown 37 touchdown passes. But Favre has more dynamic talent around him; defenses also gear up to stop the run. The Saints’ offense is more reliant on Brees and his ability to con defenses with his pump fakes and eye movement. So it’s Brees … barely.

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