The first pick is easy, just as it was last year. And the Washington Nationals have hope for the future because of it. That’s how good Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper can be in the big leagues.
The list of top picks in the last 20 years includes David Price, Justin Upton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Alex Rodriguez and Chipper Jones. However, and there’s always a however when it comes to baseball and draft picks, it also includes Brien Taylor, Phil Nevin, Matt Bush, Paul Wilson and Bryan Bullington.
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The Nationals know this as well. Which is why a successful draft — and organization — hinges on what they do after the first pick (Round 2 starts Tuesday). In the last 30 years, the only time you could argue that two impact players went first overall in back-to-back years came in 2000 and 2001 with Gonzalez and Mauer.
The Nats will pick Harper on Monday, but he’s only 17, and a lot of things can happen between now and the time he’s ready for the majors.
That’s why if the Nationals only come away from the last two drafts with Strasburg and Harper (as well as Drew Storen last year), then they won’t sustain any success. It’s not just about promoting talent to the majors. It’s about having commodities other teams want to help acquire proven vets at the trading deadline.
“Rounds 2 to 15 are really where it’s going to separate a good draft to a franchise-changing draft,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said.
Washington’s farm system, by most accounts, was ranked anywhere between 15 and 20 before the season. Not bad but not terribly great, either. Just having Strasburg — along with Storen and catcher Derek Norris, who is playing for Potomac — elevated them that high.
But there’s a lack of talent at the higher levels. By all accounts, the Nats had a successful draft last season. It won’t be enough to build the sort of franchise they want.
“It’s a huge day for us,” Rizzo said of Tuesday.
And he doesn’t just mean because of Strasburg’s debut. The Nats are wise to know that one person does not a draft make.
