Whichever way you slice it, it’s always going to come down to one thing in baseball: personnel.
If you’ve got better players than the other team, you’ll beat them most of the time. It’s perfectly apparent that the reigning NL champion Phillies have better personnel than the Nationals. That the Nats have won two of six matchups this year might be a little more than you’d expect. The Phils have Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth; a well-above-average core. The Nats have Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn … and some other pretty good players, but nothing comparable — yet.
In Baltimore, many fans are screaming for manager Dave Trembley’s head in the wake of their slow start. The smarter ones know, in the context of the AL East anyway, that the Orioles don’t match up very well with any of the better ball clubs, and not at all with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees. Potential to spare, certainly, but nowhere near the talent level.
How many below average rosters win championships? I can’t name a single one. Sure, there have been situations where the more talented team has lost the World Series, but those things happen, and it’s not like the winning team has been a bunch of so-so performers in those cases.
It’s possible to overachieve with an average-to-below-average roster. The 1989 Orioles did it, winning 87 games and finishing second, just a year after losing 107. They came back to earth in 1990, once again finishing last. Ted Williams did it with the 1969 Senators, winning 86 games a year after losing 96, but the trend failed to hold beyond that season.
Divisional play has allowed teams like the 1987 Twins to advance to the postseason with only 85 regular season wins. There were only two divisions back then, and Minnesota won the West. The fourth place Yankees in the East won 89 games, but had to watch the playoffs on TV. The home-field advantage worked for the Twins as they swept all four games at the Metrodome.
At various points this season, the Nationals’ personnel will begin to change. The arrival of Stephen Strasburg will get the most coverage, but reliever Drew Storen looks like the real deal, too. The June draft will garner a lot of interest; will the Nats take the incredibly hyped Bryce Harper, or go after a more mature college pitcher?
The Nationals — much like the Phillies — are attempting to assemble a roster that will be extremely competitive for more than a year or two. The Phils had seven straight sub-.500 finishes after winning the 1993 NL flag, and went through at least 20 pitchers every one of those years.
They didn’t get this good overnight. Nor will the Nationals.
Phil Wood is a contributor to Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at [email protected].
