One team has the best defense in the NFL but a rookie third-string quarterback under center. Another team has a three-time Super Bowl winning passer but the worst defense in the league. Another boasts five wins against teams currently in playoff position but has three losses to teams outside the postseason picture. And the last squad — the reigning conference champion — has two critical losses to their division-leading rival. With just three weeks remaining, the Texans, Patriots, Ravens and Steelers are all 10-3. So who’s the team to beat in the conference?
4. Houston Texans
On Sunday, rookie quarterback T.J. Yates proved he could win a close game, leading Houston to a last-second victory over the Bengals. The Texans currently own the tiebreaker for the top seed in the conference. But unlike the other 10-3 AFC teams, the Texans have no playoff experience. Ben Roethlisberger (10-3), Tom Brady (14-5) and Joe Flacco (4-3) each have a winning career postseason record. While Yates has only two career regular-season starts.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Once again the Steelers have an elite defense. And with the emergence of receivers Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, Roethlisberger has more weapons in the passing game than he ever has. But two losses to the Ravens means the Steelers need a slip up from Baltimore to win the division. Pittsburgh won a title in 2005 as a wild card, but having to win three roads games to get to the Super Bowl is not an ideal situation.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the most balanced team in the group. On offense, they can beat you a lot of different ways. And on defense, Baltimore is in the top five in points, passing and rushing. But every time Baltimore is ready to be anointed as the team to beat, it has another letdown. A team this talented should not lose to the Titans, Jaguars and Seahawks.
1. New England Patriots
While the other 10-3 squads have the top three ranked defenses in the league, the Patriots are last. But that can be a little deceptive. The defense is 14th in points allowed (21.1) and leads the conference with 18 interceptions. And Brady can make up for a lot of defensive mistakes. The Patriots’ offense leads the AFC in points and yards. It’s simple: The Patriots have the edge because they have Brady.
– Jeffrey Tomik
