One of the greatest traditions in sports is “America’s Game,” the annual duel between the Army and Navy football teams. Here’s my preview.
Army (9-2) vs. Navy (3-9, 2-6) — 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS
Saturday’s edition marks the 119th installment of one of the greatest rivalries in sports. President Trump will be in attendance in Philadelphia as Army and Navy collide at Lincoln Financial Field.
It’s always fun to see what uniforms the two sides will be wearing as they seem to switch them up every year. This year, I think Army has the edge on cooler uniforms.
The Army Black Knights come into this game against arch-rival Navy on a serious roll. The Cadets have won seven games in a row and have won nine games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1945-1946. Think about that for a moment: The last time Army put together back-to-back seasons of at least nine wins was in the final year of and the year following World War II.
The Black Knights aren’t ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings, but they returned to the AP Poll for the first time since 1996. It’s hard to believe that it has been 22 years since Army was a ranked team.
Army’s two losses this year were in the season opener to a Duke team that went on to win seven games (including a win over Big Ten West champion Northwestern) and in overtime on the road at No. 5 Oklahoma, in what was nearly the biggest upset of the season. Army was the only team to hold Oklahoma under 30 points this season, and Heisman candidate Kyler Murray was limited to less than 170 yards passing as the Black Knights controlled the ball for nearly 45 minutes to Oklahoma’s 15:19. The Cadets put the fear of God into the Sooners, showing that this team is legit.
Jeff Monken has changed the direction of Army football. In 2016, he led the Black Knights to their first win over Navy since 2001 and then beat them again last season. For the first time in program history, the Cadets are bowl-eligible for the third straight year.
Fullback Darnell Woolfolk leads the way for the Black Knights. The senior captain is tied for third on Army’s all-time rushing touchdowns list with 37. He’s listed at 5’9’’ and 235 so he can either run around you or over you.
Kelvin Hopkins Jr. has been an underrated leader under center for this Army squad. His ability to execute this offense, to control the pace and tempo of the game, and throw the ball when called upon has been crucial to this squad’s success.
It also doesn’t hurt that the defense is allowing fewer than 19 points per game this season, putting the unit in the top 20 in the country right behind Georgia and Utah.
In Annapolis, this season has definitely been one to forget for the Navy Midshipmen. The Mids are 3-9, the worst record for a Navy football squad since 2002 when Paul Johnson was in his first year as head coach. Johnson salvaged that first season in 2002 by demolishing Army, starting what would become a 14-game winning streak against its arch-rivals.
The Midshipmen won’t be going to a bowl this year, snapping a six-year streak. Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s worst team at Navy up to this point was the 2011 squad that went 5-7. He has led Navy to a bowl game in nine of his 11 years at the helm. He’s consistent and, more importantly, he’s consistent at beating Army.
The Mids have been a mess at quarterback this season, and the lack of execution we’ve seen all season long isn’t what we’re used to seeing from this team on either side of the ball.
There are some numbers that tell a bit of the story. Navy is scoring 28.8 points per game, but it is also allowing 34.9 points per game. Allowing nearly 35 points per game is bad for any team. At Navy, it’s simply unacceptable.
If you watch one player during this game, watch Navy’s Malcolm Perry. The junior plays running back and quarterback and is one of the most explosive players in the country. Perry has rushed for more than 1,000 yards on just 166 carries, averaging 6.2 yards per carry to go along with his seven rushing touchdowns. Even though he’s undersized, he’s good enough and tough enough to play on any team in the nation, but his calling was to become a Navy Midshipmen.
In 2017, Zach Abey averaged 4.8 yards per carry, ran for more than 1,400 yards, and had 19 rushing touchdowns. This season has been a very different story. While he has run for 14 touchdowns, he only has 306 total rushing yards on 119 carries, a paltry average of 2.6 yards per carry. The team has been bad as a whole, but Abey has been bad too. The Mids have needed more production from him, and they simply haven’t gotten it.
Something to keep an eye on in this game is third and fourth-down conversions. Army leads the nation in third-down conversion percentage at 57.1 percent while top-ranked and undefeated Alabama is a distant second at 52.8 percent. The Mids are ranked 65th at 39.2 percent.
Army also leads the nation in fourth-down conversion percentage, going a jaw-dropping 30-for-33. That 90.1 percent conversion rate is unfathomably good. The next closest team is Texas at 76.9 percent, while Navy is 32nd at 60.6 percent. The Cadets get great push up front, and their option offense is really tough to stop in short-yardage situations like fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-inches.
The Black Knights have scored on each of their past five opening drives. If they can get points on the opening drive against Navy, that would be a big boost and help set the tone for them offensively.
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy
Army will retain the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy regardless of the outcome. Navy lost to Air Force, so the Mids are 0-1 entering the game, Air Force is 1-1 after beating Navy but losing to Army, and Army enters the game 1-0 after beating Air Force. If Navy wins, all three schools will be 1-1.
In the event of a tie, the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy goes to the school currently holding it. That means the Black Knights will keep the trophy no matter what and have a chance to win it outright.
The Line: Army (-7.0)
My Pick: In a rivalry game where the final score is almost always close, seven points can seem like a lot. The last four games have been decided by a combined 16 points. That being said, I’m going with Army to win and cover the spread.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
