Named for United Parcel Service delivery company, Big Brown is my choice for Saturday’s 134th Kentucky Derby over Adriano with Eight Belles in your triple and Recapturetheglory as the long shot play.
Big Brown could be the best 3-year-old colt since Spectacular Bid just missed the 1979 Triple Crown. That’s not to say he’ll become the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years, but Big Brown has the rare combination of early speed and stamina to whistle the Derby field and then survive a speed battle in the Preakness Stakes. The only Derby fear is a bad start from the outside No. 20 post, but he has won from No. 12 and possesses the early speed to get around the field.
Watch Big Brown’s Florida Derby victory on ntra.com. It was electrifying despite being only by five lengths. His speed figures are sensational and has two-time Derby-winning jockey Kent Desormeaux, who was a Maryland teen phenom in the 1980s.
Critics knock Big Brown’s meager three career starts, which would be the fewest by a Derby winner since Regret in 1915. It’s a fair question — Big Brown has hoof problems so handlers were careful. However, inexperience won’t be the reason if he gets beat.
Adriano gets the nod for second after a very methodical victory in the Lanes End Stakes. The colt can handle traffic at the top of the stretch under former Maryland rider Edgar Prado, who recently joined Desormeaux in the Hall of Fame.
The triple requires a hunch. Eight Belles would win the Kentucky Oaks for fillies on Friday, but trainer Larry Jones seeks the fourth female Derby winner and first since Winning Colors in 1988. Jones campaigned Hard Spun to some hard luck in last year’s Triple Crown, but Eight Belles is 4-0 this year and freakishly big for a filly. Oh, and she’s ridden by another Maryland rider — Ramon Dominguez.
Recapturetheglory won the Illinois Derby under trainer Louie Roussel and owner Ronnie Lamarque, a talented New Orleans combo whose Risen Star just missed the Triple Crown 20 years ago. Sometimes you just have to back talented barns.
As for possible second choice Colonel John, 20 years of paying tuition at the University of Twin Spires taught me the very hard lesson that if anything weird happens during Derby week, toss them. Colonel John ran a feverishly fast workout on Sunday. I’ve seen trainers after past sizzling works say their runner’s sharp, then admit after the loss the work took something out of the colt. Colonel John ran two seconds faster than he should, which is 10 lengths. Too bad — the Iraq war veteran namesake was a real contender.
Get fat with Big Brown on Saturday and bring the winnings to the Preakness on May 17. I picked the Preakness triple last year. It’s time for more.
Rick Snider has covered local sports since 1978. Contact him at [email protected].
