Big deal brings no guarantees to Dodgers

While the Boston Red Sox took a necessary step back to unclog their unhappy big league roster and shed salary, the Los Angeles Dodgers took the opposite risk in Saturday’s blockbuster trade.

The Dodgers had money to burn under a new ownership group and were willing to trade their few remaining top prospects to acquire a star in first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. The slugger is a perfect fit. He is under contract for six more years, and he could be a bargain at a position of need compared to, say, Prince Fielder, who signed a massive deal last winter.

The other parts could help — maybe. Carl Crawford was an even more heralded free agent than Jayson Werth after the 2010 season but has fared poorly and now needs Tommy John surgery to fix an elbow problem. He won’t help this season. Nick Punto is hardly an impact player. Josh Beckett has been a bad, expensive pitcher two of the last three years. Yes, going to the National League will help. But how much? He is just a depth starter now if the Dodgers suffer an injury in the rotation.

For the immediate future, though, only Gonzalez will really help Los Angeles in its push for the National League West title or a wild-card berth. He is familiar with the division after years with his hometown San Diego Padres. But according to the website Fangraphs.com, Gonzalez has been worth only 2.8 wins above replacement (WAR) this season. Even with his three-run homer in his debut Saturday, it’s hard to see him being worth much more than one extra win to Los Angeles in the final 34 games this season. There’s no guarantee that will be enough.

– Brian McNally

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