NFC Championship game New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
When » Sunday, 6:30 p.m.
Where » Candlestick Park, San Francisco
TV » Fox
Keys to a giants victory
1 Get a pass rush » Like usual with the New York Giants, the success of their defense relies on the front four getting a pass rush. Led by ends Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, the defensive line accounted for 41.5 of the Giants’ 48 sacks this season. But the line struggled to get pressure on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers for most of the first half last week. Blitzing linebacker Michael Boley, who had two sacks, fueled the pass rush vs. Green Bay. San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith was sacked 44 times this season, the most in the NFL.
2 Win turnover battle » This could be a key to victory for every team every week, but it’s confounded when facing the 49ers. San Francisco had a plus-28 turnover differential and tied an NFL single-season record with just 10 giveaways. Last week against the Saints, the 49ers forced three fumbles and two interceptions, while only giving the ball away once. The Giants had 24 giveaways during the regular season but just one in their two playoff victories. Against Green Bay last week, New York won the turnover battle four-to-one, forcing one interception and three fumbles.
Keys to a 49ers victory
1 Get Vernon Davis involved » The 49ers tight end has been one of the best at his position for three years now, but he was introduced to the national spotlight last week with his seven-catch, 180-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Saints. Davis makes San Francisco’s passing game dynamic. In the 49ers’ three losses, he had just seven catches for 88 yards and no touchdowns. The District native and Maryland graduate, who has 26 touchdowns over the last three seasons, is especially dangerous in the red zone with his 6-foot-3, 250-pound frame.
2 Stop the big play » During the Giants’ four-game winning streak, they have touchdown passes of 37, 66, 72, 74 and 99 yards. With wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, New York has big-play ability. The key for the 49ers’ defense will be to tackle. Cruz and Nicks combined for 957 yards after the catch this season. Last week against the Saints, the 49ers’ defense allowed touchdown passes 44 and 66 yards. San Francisco had the top-ranked run defense in the league this season, but it will be its pass defense that will be under the microscope for the second consecutive week.
Key Matchup
Giants RBs vs. 49ers LBs
After averaging an NFL-worst 89.2 rushing yards a game during the regular season, the Giants have averaged 133.5 yards on the ground in their two playoff victories. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are starting to resemble the top-10 rushing attack the Giants had in 2010. The 49ers have the best inside linebacker tandem in the league with Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. They are the reason San Francisco allowed an NFL-best 77.3 rushing yards a game this season. If the Giants are unable to run the football, it could set up a lot of third-and-longs.
By the numbers
11 » Rushes of more than 20 yards for 49ers running back Frank Gore this season, which tied for third most in the NFL.
2 » Straight playoff games Giants quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for three touchdowns, something he never did in his first seven postseason games.
6 » Interceptions for 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers this season. He had eight picks in six seasons with the Washington Redskins.
4 » Victories for the New York Giants franchise history in NFC Championship games. The Giants are 4-0 all time, including a win over the San Francisco 49ers in the 1990 postseason.
Last meeting
49ers 27, Giants 20 (Nov. 13)
San Francisco defensive tackle Justin Smith batted Eli Manning’s pass on fourth down in the final seconds, and the 49ers held on for the win. Manning threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns but was picked off twice by Carlos Rogers. Alex Smith threw for 242 yards and connected with Vernon Davis on a 31-yard touchdown for the 49ers. Frank Gore had his franchise-record streak of five straight games with 100 yards rushing end with a knee injury as he rushed for no yards on six carries.
Examiner predicts …
Giants 30, 49ers 20
Alex Smith was able to beat Drew Brees and the Saints in a fourth-quarter shootout, but the Giants’ defense poses a much more difficult task this week for Smith. The 49ers’ offensive line won’t be able to handle the Giants’ pass rush. And Eli Manning will continue his career year with a few more big plays to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. However, the weather, which calls for rain, could turn this into a messy, run-heavy game, favoring San Francisco.
