Okay, since this seems to be the topic of conversation early this offseason I’ll weigh in: What do the Caps do about defenseman Mike Green and right wing Alex Semin? Both players enter 2011-12 in the final year of their contracts. Both have underwhelmed at times in the postseason. A segment of the fan base apparently would love to pack a suitcase for each guy and drive them out to Dulles.
Not saying that couldn’t happen. If a trade – or trades – brings back a couple of players who can change the dynamic of a team that can’t figure out the Stanley Cup playoffs then maybe you do move one or even both of them. But that’s far easier said in the aftermath of another postseason disappointment than actually done.
Let’s look at this realistically, starting with Green. I’ll write about Semin in a separate post. Washington general manager George McPhee spoke after the season about how a lack of balance on the blueline – namely speed and puck-moving abilities – hurt his team in the playoffs. Does that sound like a man who wants to move one of the league’s best skaters off his team? If Green is dealt, Dennis Wideman and John Carlson would be the only two on the roster with those strengths. Can’t count on Tom Poti (groin) right now, for obvious reasons, even though he fits the mold.
To the numbers: Per 60 minutes of even strength ice time, Green saw the opposition score 2.11 goals. Only Karl Alzner (1.90) and Carlson (1.93) were better among regular Caps defensemen. Yes, Washington played a more conservative style after Dec. 12. But that 2.11 still ranks 51st among all NHL defensemen who played at least 40 games. Green, remember, was limited to just 49 in the regular season thanks to his back-to-back head injuries in February.
In fact, let’s take out the scrubs from that list and look at defensemen who logged at least 13 minutes of even strength ice time per game. That jumps Green to 43rd overall. And there are some pretty good names below him, including Drew Doughty (2.26), Shea Weber (2.34), Chris Pronger (2.28), Marc Staal (2.20), Anton Volchenkov (2.21) and Paul Martin (2.23). Now, Green’s quality of competition (112th) was behind all of those players save Volchenkov (135th). That matters. The fact that he played in just 49 matters, too, because he’s now missed 66 of 410 possible games in five full seasons. Not terrible injury luck considering 33 of those came this season. But he isn’t exactly Doug Jarvis, either.
But if Green can play near that 2.11 level in his own end – the best mark of his career – and come close to his offensive ceiling (70+ points) you again have one of the best d-men in the league. Throwing that away just to “change the culture” seems a bad idea to me unless you’re getting a real nice package of players – plural – in return. “Shake ups” only work if you find a willing partner and get legit talent in return that also fits your system. In today’s NHL that’s a Herculean task.
The defensemen who have topped 60 points since the NHL returned from the lockout in 2005-06? That’s 15 players. Only four of those 15 players have topped 60 points twice in those six seasons. And only Green and Nicklas Lidstrom have topped 70 twice. So, um, yeah…maybe don’t sell low on a guy like that. Even at, say, 55 points – closer to his total (58) in 2007-08 – and repeating that 2.11 goals against per 60 Green is an exceedingly valuable player.
When he did get on the ice he was also right in line with Washington’s other penalty killers (2:21 minutes per game) – ahead of Carlson (2:19) and Alzner (2:07) and just behind Jeff Schultz (2:26) and Scott Hannan (2:22). Wideman (3:05) was the outlier, but his minutes were skewed because he played only 14 games after being acquired from Florida on Feb. 28 and the Caps were short-handed on the blueline so often in March. Poti (2:32) was used more, too – but he played in just 21 games. Evidence for the prosecution against Green in short-handed situations is that only Hannan faced easier competition. That may explain why he was – by the numbers – slightly better 4-on-5 than Carlson or Alzner. Thanks, as always, to the web site Behind the Net for these stats.
Critics will correctly note that even if he played a full season in 2010-11 Green was still only on pace for about 40 points. He should be better than that. The Caps need him to be more productive, especially on their mediocre power play. But we have three years of evidence that Green is better than that and one that says he isn’t. Which is the safe bet? Let’s concede one other point in favor of a Green trade, though: He not only has a year on his contract at a $5.25 million salary-cap hit, but one last RFA year after that. That should make any NHL GM looking to deal for Green a lot more comfortable. Up to McPhee if that’s the kind of shake up he’s looking for this summer.
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