At 55-75, the Nationals have to play .500 ball the rest of the season in order to finish 71-91 and fulfill my preseason prediction.
Unless the National League opts to let them play all of those games at home — where they’re an even 30-30 thus far — I’m not going to hold my breath.
Any truly objective observer — which excludes most Nationals fans, particularly those who post messages about the team online — concluded in late March this team was not a contender, MLB’s foot-dragging on the ownership issue notwithstanding. A press box colleague from another publication put it best, opining that even if they lost a lot of games this year, they would at least be interesting.
And they have been that.
A lot of successful teams have taken the “get-worse-before-you-get-better” route. It’s one team president Stan Kasten is only too familiar with. When he became president of the Atlanta Braves 20 years ago, that club went from 72 wins to 69 — to a truly abysmal 54 — to 63 to 69. Then the Braves posted 94 victories a division title and World Series appearance in 1991. Incredibly, Atlanta’s Fall Classic opponent was worst-to-first Minnesota, the second time the Twins rebounded from 71-91 to a ring within five years.
The Nats don’t appear to have the same raw material the Braves had 15 years ago as far as pitching is concerned (think Smoltz and Glavine).
But the offense has potential.
Entering today’s game with Philadelphia, the Nationals are ranked 13th out of 30 big league clubs in on-base percentage (.338) and 15th in home runs (141). The power stat in particular shows the heavy contribution of Alfonso Soriano. But it also disproves last season’s myth that RFK is a pitcher’s park. It was neutral in the 1960s and remains that way today.
Nats hitters still strikeout too much — they’re eighth overall with 916 — but they’re patient enough at the plate to draw 483 walks, fifth most overall.
The pitching numbers more accurately reflect the won-lost record. A club ERA of 5.02 is better than only the Orioles and Royals, and 24 saves is better than only Cleveland.
The Nats’ bullpen has blown 16 save opportunities, if you’re keeping track, though only three belong to closer Chad Cordero. The staff has issued 463 walks, eighth most overall. The most telling stat may be simply that they’ve used at least 25 pitchers on the big league club this year, a staggering number of transactions.
There’s an old expression that essentially says statistics are for losers. There’s a kernel of truth to that. Many teams win championships without leading the league in anything other than wins.
The fan in me still feels a pang of regret when they lose, and I’m prepared for another season — or two — of sub-.500 baseball. Local baseball fans — and I’ll include those still pulling for the Orioles — have been remarkably patient.
They just have to maintain.
Phil Wood has covered sports in the Washington-Baltimore market for more than 30 years.
