It’s week five of college football season and October is nearly here! I did pretty well with my picks last week, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. Not bad at all!
Here are three games to keep an eye on this week:
No. 12 West Virginia at No. 25 Texas Tech — Noon on ESPN2
Will Grier is having a Heisman-caliber season for the Mountaineers, and this game provides ample opportunity for him to add to his already eye-popping numbers. The senior QB has thrown 14 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season, while throwing for more than 1,100 yards with a completion percentage of 74.7 percent.
David Sills V, a QB prospect turned wide receiver, was a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s top wide receiver, last season and is definitely in the running to win the award this year. He leads the prolific Mountaineers offense in receptions and TD catches.
The Red Raiders have a star in the making in true freshman QB Alan Bowman. Bowman is completing just more than 72 percent of his passes while tossing 10 touchdowns against just two picks. He has thrown for 1,557 yards this season and 1,002 of them have come in the team’s last two games: 605 yards and five TDs in a 63-49 home win against Houston and 397 yards and a pair of TD passes in a 41-17 romp at No. 15 Oklahoma State.
After getting crushed by 20 points in their opener against Ole Miss, Kliff Kingsbury has this team playing some inspired football. Texas Tech runs the ball more than we’re used to seeing from them. If the Red Raiders can run the ball effectively on first or second down, it’ll make them a lot more unpredictable on offense. Watch out for Texas Tech’s Antoine Wesley. He’s tied for second in the country in receiving yards, with 511.
West Virginia defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has gotten the better of Texas Tech’s “Air Raid” offenses, holding the Red Raiders to an average of 28 points per game and helping the Mountaineers win the past four meetings between the two teams. Patrick Mahomes is lighting it up in the NFL, but he struggled mightily against WVU. Can Bowman and Kingsbury flip the script on his friend and former roommate, WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen, Gibson, and the Mountaineers?
The Line: West Virginia (-3.5)
My Pick: I was struggling with this pick because of how well the Red Raiders have been playing as of late, but ultimately, I’m going to go with WVU because Gibson always has a good game plan when the Mountaineers play Texas Tech. I think West Virginia covers and wins in Lubbock.
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 9 Penn State — 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
This game is one of the best matchups of the college football season to date. College GameDay is in town for Penn State’s “Whiteout” game. Two years ago, the Nittany Lions upset No. 2 Ohio State in their “Whiteout” game that season, handing Urban Meyer his first road loss as head coach of the Buckeyes.
Penn State lost a lot of talent since the end of last season. Offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead left to become the head coach at Mississippi State. All-American running back Saquon Barkley left for the NFL. DaSean Hamilton, the star wide receiver who finished his career as Penn State’s all-time receptions leader and second in school history in receiving yards, graduated and was drafted. Mike Gesicki, Penn State’s all-time leader for catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns by a tight end, also graduated and got drafted. And the Nittany Lions were without most of last year’s starters on defense.
And yet, through four games, Penn State has the country’s top scoring offense!
Miles Sanders has been outstanding thus far for Penn State, carrying the ball 71 times for 495 yards and 5 TDs. That’s an astonishing seven yards per carry. Trace McSorley hasn’t performed quite like he did last year, but he also doesn’t have Barkley, Hamilton, and Gesicki to help him pick apart defenses. However, McSorley has been a true dual-threat QB this season. While throwing for 10 touchdowns against just two picks, he has also run for 235 yards and 6 touchdowns on 41 attempts, averaging just shy of 6 yards per carry. It’s no surprise that Ohio State’s priority will be containing the run game. Watch out for KJ Hamler. The diminutive wideout may be 5-foot-9, but he’s also leading the team in touchdown catches and receiving yards, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception.
What’s there to say about Ohio State’s offense? Dwayne Haskins has taken the reins in Columbus and he looks like a bonafide Heisman candidate leading the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense. He has thrown for nearly 1,200 yards at a 75.7 percent clip while tossing 16 touchdowns against just one interception. Will he remain unflappable in an intimidating road environment? Luckily for Haskins, this is one of the most balanced offenses in college football. J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber both have more than 50 carries and are each averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
The Buckyes won’t have their defensive MVP on the field, though. After having abdominal surgery, Nick Bosa, the younger brother of Los Angeles Chargers defensive end Joey Bosa and candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL draft, is going to miss several games. Without Bosa, will Ohio State be able to get consistent pressure on the edge and up the middle? My X-factor in the game is Penn State’s offensive line. If the Nittany Lions can hold off Ohio State’s pass rush and run the ball down their throats, they’re going to have success offensively.
The Line: Ohio State (-3.5)
My Pick: With the country’s top two scoring offenses going head-to-head, I expect this game to turn into a shootout. Ohio State’s defense gives up a lot of big plays, but I think the offense will make up for it. The team who runs the ball the best will likely have the best chance to win. Another tough call because I can see this game going either way, but I think the Buckeyes cover and leave Happy Valley with a W.
No. 7 Stanford at No. 8 Notre Dame — 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
For the second week in a row, Stanford is featured in a prime time game with huge College Football Playoff implications. Last week, Stanford was sluggish in the first half and had to overcome a 17-point deficit in the second half to send the game into overtime and win on the road against No. 20 Oregon. Yes, Stanford got lucky that the Ducks fumbled late as they were trying to run out the clock, but the Cardinal took advantage and got the win.
Stanford signal-caller KJ Costello’s numbers won’t blow your mind, but he was superb last week against the Ducks. He was 19-of-26 for 327 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. That’s getting it done in a big-time atmosphere with big-time stakes. Keep in mind that Costello threw for four touchdowns against Notre Dame last year at The Farm when the Cardinal beat Notre Dame by 18. Can he summon another great performance against the Fighting Irish? He and wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside hooked up for another pair of touchdowns against the Ducks, giving Arcega-Whiteside seven touchdown catches on the season. That’s good for second in the country.
This Notre Dame defense will be much tougher than Oregon’s, but how will the offense perform? Ian Book got his first start of the season against Wake Forest and Brian Kelly’s faith was rewarded. Book threw for more than 300 yards and two touchdowns without a pick and completed 73.5 percent of his passes as Notre Dame won on the road by 29. Stanford is obviously a much better team on both sides of the ball than Wake and doesn’t flinch, as evidenced by the Cardinal’s incredible comeback last week. Can Book repeat last week’s terrific performance in a huge game against a much better opponent?
The X-factor continues to be Stanford running back Bryce Love. Teams are stacking the box to try and stop last year’s Heisman runner-up, and Costello is making them pay. Last year, Love averaged an insane 8.1 yards per carry. This year, he’s averaging only 4.3. Simply put, Stanford needs 2017 Bryce Love to show up in this game.
The Line: Notre Dame (-5.5)
My Pick: Five and a half is too rich for my blood against a really good Stanford team. For the second straight week, I think Stanford gets it done on the road against a ranked opponent. I’m taking the Cardinal as road underdogs.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in D.C.
