It’s week 13 of college football, and the regular season finales are finally here! I have been lighting it up over the last three weeks, with my picks going 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread. That brings my numbers (through nine weeks of picking games) to 19-8 straight up and 16-11 against the spread. There are three big regular season finales between ranked teams with conference championship implications. That’s why I left some historic rivalry games like the Iron Bowl off the list of my three games to keep an eye on.
Without further ado, here they are (betting lines are current as of Thursdsay morning):
No. 4 Michigan (10-1, 8-0) at No. 10 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1) — Saturday, Noon ET on FOX
The game needs no introduction, and the stakes are clear-cut. Win, and you punch your ticket to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. Lose, and your shot at a conference title and the College Football Playoff is over.
The Wolverines have won 10 straight since dropping the season opener to Notre Dame in South Bend. That loss doesn’t look bad at all considering the Fighting Irish are undefeated and will make the CFP if they beat USC in their season finale.
The maize and blue made eight trips to the red zone in their win against Indiana last week. The problem? They only scored a touchdown on one of those eight trips and finished with 31 points. That won’t get it done against Ohio State.
Ohio State’s star quarterback Dwayne Haskins is a Heisman candidate and set the school single-season record for touchdown passes in a season in his first year as a starter. Haskins has thrown for nearly 3,700 yards this season with 36 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. The kid is a star. He had six combined touchdowns in an overtime win against Maryland. He might not have to replicate his gaudy stat line from last week’s game in College Park, but he’ll need to play like a superstar for the Buckeyes to have a chance.
The key for Michigan all season has been its fantastic defense and strong run game. The Wolverines are allowing just 13.5 points per game. Dom Brown, Michigan’s defensive coordinator, is one of the best in the business. Karan Higdon has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the ten games he has played in this season and he has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in eight of those 10 as well. He has 10 rushing touchdowns and has run for more than 1,100 yards this season.
The match-ups I’m looking forward to seeing the most are the battles on the line of scrimmage on offense and defense, whether Michigan can replicate the success Maryland had running the ball last week and pummel the Buckeyes with its rushing attack, and how Dwayne Haskins will perform in the biggest game of his young career against a fantastic Michigan defense.
The Line: Michigan (-4.5)
My Pick: I’ve spent most of the season picking against Michigan. No longer! I’m taking the Wolverines to win and cover.
No. 6 Oklahoma (10-1, 7-1) at No. 13 West Virginia (8-2, 6-2) – Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
Assuming that Texas beats Kansas, this game turns into a win-and-you’re-in game. The winner plays in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is the Big 12’s last prayer at getting a team into the CFP. A loss for the Sooners would throw a huge wrench into those plans.
West Virginia’s offense failed to put the nail in the coffin against Oklahoma State last week and the defense vanished when the Mountaineers needed it most. Now they have to face one of the best offenses in the nation.
Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray will probably leave to pursue a baseball career after the season because he was drafted by the Oakland Athletics earlier this year. But right now, he’s a Heisman candidate with insane numbers.
He has completed more than 70 percent of his passes for more than 3,300 yards and thrown for 34 touchdowns with only six picks. He also averages 7.1 yards per carry, running for 739 yards this season with 10 rushing touchdowns. His athleticism is off the charts.
Meanwhile, Will Grier has had an outstanding season for the Mountaineers. He has completed more than 67 percent of his passes for more than 3,300 yards with 33 touchdown passes and eight picks. His top targets, David Sills V and Gary Jennings Jr., are a potent 1-2 combo at wide receiver. They’ve combined for 23 of the team’s 34 TDs through the air.
With each team having such an explosive offense, the key will be third-down conversions, who scores touchdowns on their red zone trips instead of field goals, and which team wins the turnover battle. The team that has the ball last may very well win this game.
The Line: Oklahoma (-3.0)
My Pick: Both teams have struggled on defense this season, but since West Virginia has the home crowd and a big chip on their shoulders after last week’s loss, I’m taking the Mountaineers to win in a straight upset as the home underdog.
No. 16 Washington (8-3, 6-2) at No. 8 Washington State (10-1, 7-1) – Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET on FOX
The defending Pac-12 champs head to Pullman for the latest installment in the Apple Cup. The winner wins the Pac-12 North and earns a shot at the Pac-12 title. This rivalry game has been played since 1900 and is one of the biggest rivalry games in the conference.
Washington’s losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal were all games that the Huskies should have won. They made self-inflicted mistakes and cost themselves those wins. And yet, they still have a chance to defend their conference title.
Jake Browning is arguably the best quarterback in Washington history and Myles Gaskin is arguably the greatest running back in school history. These two have their names written all over the Pac-12 record books, often in the top 10 and top five, making them two of the greatest players at their respective positions in the long and illustrious history of the conference. Gaskin, in fact, is 94 yards shy of becoming the first player in Pac-12 history to record four seasons of at least 1,000 rushing yards.
The high-octane Washington State Cougars have flown under the radar this season. They are the Pac-12’s only one-loss team, and they’re hoping for a ton of chaos at the top to help them break into the CFP.
Gardner Minshew is also a Heisman candidate, and for good reason. In last week’s win against Arizona, he was 43-for-55 for 473 yards, tossing seven touchdowns with no picks. That’s a completion percentage of 78.2 percent. Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense has taken flight under Minshew as the Cougars have averaged just more than 400 yards per game through the air.
Can Washington’s defense, which allows less than 17 points per game and has been one of this team’s biggest and most consistent strengths this entire season, contain Minshew and the Cougars’ passing offense? Can Browning end his regular-season career on a high note? He’s had a very disappointing senior season statistically and failed to lead the Huskies to the CFP, something many pundits expected him to do.
The key matchups will be Minshew against the Huskies’ defensive line and secondary, which team wins the turnover battle, which team gets out of the gate early with a fast start, and Gaskin against the Washington State linebacking corps. If he can consistently get past them and into the second level, the Huskies may have a good chance to extend their win streak in the series to six.
The Line: Washington State (-2.5)
My Pick: Washington State is in a similar position as West Virginia. With a home crowd behind them and knowing what’s at stake in this awesome in-state rivalry, I’m going with the Cougars to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
