New York Giants (12-7) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) When » Sunday, 6:29 p.m.
Where » Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV » NBC
Keys to a Giants victory
1 Stop the Patriots tight ends » In the NFC Championship game, Vernon Davis was a main concern for the Giants’ defense and the 49ers tight end went for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Both safeties — Antrel Rolle and Kenny Phillips — were burned by Davis. Rolle and Phillips will have to bounce back against the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who have combined for 353 receiving yards, 70 rushing yards and four touchdowns in two playoff games. But the Giants won’t solely rely on their safeties. With Gronkowski’s ankle injury, the Giants should try to jam him at the line of scrimmage with a linebacker or defensive end.
2 No bad Eli » With his second Super Bowl appearance, Eli Manning has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. But he still has a history of throwing interceptions. Just last season, Manning led the NFL with 25 picks. This season, Manning threw multiple interceptions in three games — all losses by the Giants. During the playoffs, Manning has been spectacular. He’s thrown for 923 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception in New York’s three victories. The Patriots’ pass defense may have ranked 31st in the NFL, allowing 293.9 yards a game, but they also led the AFC with 23 interceptions.
Keys to a Patriots victory
1 Bounce back for Brady » In the AFC Championship game against the Ravens, Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown in a playoff game for the first time since 2001. Despite throwing two interceptions and having a passer rating of 57.5, Brady and the Patriots defeated the Ravens. Brady has a history of struggling vs. Baltimore. Despite beating the Ravens in five out of six meetings, Brady has thrown more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six) vs. Baltimore. He hasn’t struggled as bad in his career vs. the Giants, but he’s lost the last two times he’s faced New York. The Giants’ pass rush clearly bothered Brady in Super Bowl XLII, sacking him five times.
2 Don’t allow the big play » The 49ers limited the Giants’ explosive offense, not allowing a pass play of more than 36 yards. But in the Giants’ previous four wins they had five scoring plays longer than 36 yards. With receivers Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, New York has a lot of big-play ability. Cruz and Nicks combined for 957 yards after the catch this season. And the Patriots allowed 79 passing plays longer than 20 yards this season, eight more than any other team in the NFL. The Patriots’ pass defense has played much better in the postseason, allowing just 195 yards a game, but they won’t be facing Tim Tebow or Joe Flacco on Sunday.
Key matchup
Patriots offensive line vs. Giants defensive line
New England offensive guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters were both named to the Pro Bowl this season and left tackle Matt Light is a three-time Pro Bowl selection. So Tom Brady has a lot of talent up front to protect him against the Giants’ prolific pass rush led by Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. The Giants have nine sacks this postseason, while the Patriots have allowed just one sack in the playoffs. New York’s pass rush can hide issues the Giants have in the secondary. If the Patriots can give Brady time, the Giants’ defense will be exposed. Another way to counter the pass rush is utilizing Wes Welker with quick passes in the slot. In three career games against the Giants, Welker has 31 receptions.
By the numbers
65 » Age of Giants coach Tom Coughlin, who would become the oldest coach to win a Super Bowl with a victory over the Patriots.
6 » Points the Giants were outscored by during the regular season. New York became the first team in NFL history with a negative point differential to reach the Super Bowl.
36 » Touchdowns thrown by Tom Brady in his playoff career, which is third place on the all-time career postseason TD list.
8 » Sacks by the Patriots’ defense in two postseason games, just one fewer than the Giants have in three games.
Last meeting
Giants 24, Patriots 20 (Nov. 6)
Two of the best late-game quarterbacks showed their greatness. The problem for Tom Brady and the Patriots was they left too much time for Eli Manning and the Giants. Brady connected with Rob Gronkowski for a 14-yard touchdown to give the Patriots a 20-17 lead with 1:36 remaining. Manning responded with a drive of his own that was capped with a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left to give the Giants a 24-20 win. The Giants’ victory ended a 31-game regular-season home winning streak for Brady.
Examiner predicts …
New York Giants 27, New England Patriots 20
The Patriots are the top seed from the AFC and are on a 10-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Giants are trying to become the first seven-loss team to win a Super Bowl and had to win their last two games of the season just to make it to the postseason. But games are about matchups and the Giants have a better defense, more playmakers on offense and may be the only team in the entire NFL with a psychological advantage over the Patriots, having ruined their perfect season four years ago.
