Took a look at the idea of the Capitals trading defenseman Mike Green in a post earlier this week. Now it’s forward Alex Semin’s turn. Not picking on those guys, but given their inconsistent playoff history and contract status if you’re going to make a deal it seems from the outside that those two have the highest combination of return price and impact on the locker room.
With Semin the complication is always the same. He is a 27-year-old with a one-year deal and the option to return home to Russia if he’s unhappy with whatever situation he’s in after the 2011-12 season. Now, to be fair, I have never once seen Semin quoted saying he had any immediate desire to play in the KHL. It’s an assumption made by fans, media and scouts/executives around the NHL based in large part on his quirky personality, the contract issues he had with Washington before and after the 2004-05 lockout and his style of play. Not sure why that is. Guys who make bad passes in the neutral zone don’t get yelled at in Russia? That can’t be true.
So let’s put all that aside. What the KHL really gives Semin – whether he wants to play back home or not – is leverage. He signed a one-year contract extension for $6.7 million in January and will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of next season. Interesting move for both sides. For the Caps they have no long-term commitment to a player who can drive them crazy at times. Remember these quotes from Bruce Boudreau after a 3-2 shootout loss to Carolina on March 29? Go ahead. Scroll to the bottom of that blog post. I’ll wait…Yeah. That’s from a man who has dealt with Semin for almost four full seasons.
For his part, Semin was apparently comfortable with room to operate as well. That’s unheard of for a player in his prime who has basically averaged a goal every other game dating back to 2006-07. But with a new CBA looming it makes sense for his camp to hold off, too. Now, on the down side that deal appears to cripple Semin’s trade value. If I’m an opposing general manager do I want to basically rent a 30-to-40-goal scorer who history tells me will play in about 68 games and has a checkered playoff history? What am I giving up in that case? Let’s be honest – we have no idea. But given those constraints a blockbuster deal with Semin as the main piece is unlikely.
So let’s take a deeper look at what, exactly, he brings to the table. No, Semin isn’t durable – if that’s even a skill in the NHL. Three of the last four years the right winger has missed at least 17 games and that, too, is held against him. Is he a one-trick pony? A pure sniper who can put up 40 goals – if healthy – and dominate on the power play, but who fades in the postseason when scoring becomes more difficult? We do love to make judgments about players based on small sample sizes. But even if scoring goals was Semin’s lone skill it’s a pretty good one. The Caps’ averaged 3.32 goals per 60 minutes of even strength ice time for Semin in 2010-11. No one else was better. Only Alex Ovechkin (3.11) also topped 3.00. Thanks, as always, to the web site Behind the Net for the stats.
Believe it or not, Semin’s not even a puck hog. He took just 196 shots, ranking fifth on the team. Semin tied for 78th in the NHL in total shots (196). He scored on 14.3% of them. That percentage tied for 39th overallso it’s not like he had a fluke season. In fact, Semin is remarkably consistent from year to year. Since 2006-07 – his first year back from Russia after the lockout – he has registered a shot percentage between 14.1% and 15.6%. Check his teammates. Ovechkin has fluctuated far more often than that – 8.7% this year, but 13.6%, 10.6%, 14.6% and 11.7% the previous four. Mike Knuble scored on 11.8% of his attempts this season. The year before that was 19.2%. Mike Green has been as low as 7% and as high as 12.8% over the last four years. Brooks Laich’s bookends are 6.7% and 17.2% since 2006-07. See? Sasha is consistent at something.
Okay, now for the other side. Who were the Caps’ best defensive forwards? Well, Laich was on the ice for 1.69 goals every 60 minutes of ice time at even strength. Marco Sturm was even better (1.55) – albeit in 18 games with Washington. Next up? Semin, who finished at 1.73. No question that’s helped by the quality of competition faced (-0.022). Among forwards who played at least 35 games with the Caps only Eric Fehr and Mathieu Perreault played against worse opponents. Semin tied with Jason Chimera in that category. But still – that weaker competition didn’t actually score against him and there’s something to be said for that.
Giveaways/takeaways can be an arbitrary stat depending on the NHL venue where they’re recorded. But for what it’s worth Semin had 62 takeaways and 42 giveaways. I’d love to know if the coaching staff has a ratio off video anywhere near that good. Semin blocked six shots – six! – all season. Even by accident you’d think he’d do better there. He had 27 hits. That was fewest on the team for any player who appeared in at least 36 games. So he’s not exactly Ryan Kessler. Only Ovechkin and Marcus Johansson drew more penalties per 60 minutes than Semin (1.0). Yet no one took more per 60 minutes (1.5). Never makes it easy on himself, does he?
Caps general manager George McPhee has defended Semin’s postseason record and I’m partial to his explanation. He had three goals and eight assists vs. Philadelphia in 2008. That’s a win. He had five goals and three assists against the Rangers in 2009. Again, win. If he was, indeed, injured during the second round of the 2009 playoffs against Pittsburgh, as McPhee claimed in January, that somewhat mitigates his -7 for that series with no goals and six assists. Semin had two assists vs. Montreal last season. Bad. He took 44 shots. Good? I guess that depends on if you think he was just gunning from terrible spots on the ice. This year he had four goals and an assist in the Rangers series and Game 1 vs. Tampa Bay. He was a -1 with a single assist in Games 2, 3 and 4 with just six shots on goal. Actually didn’t take a penalty in the Lightning series. Then again, he didn’t have a hit or a blocked shot either.
If you’re going to be a goal scorer you have to find a way to score, right? As Boudreau said – maybe with less tact than he’d like after an emotional loss – we know Alex Semin. This is what he is with individual brilliance that leaves you breathless – remember how he almost tied the Detroit game at the buzzer March 16 with an absurd shot from the blue line that drilled the post? – mixed with the kind of decision-making that leaves coaches balled up on their office floor sputtering in frustration. The question when assessing his trade value is: How much does another NHL GM need that brilliance and how much can he overlook?
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