| MIDWEST REGION Where » Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis |
SOUTH REGION Where » Reliant Stadium, Houston |
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No. 2 Ohio State X-factors » Tennessee’s 3-point shooting. The Volunteers are a streaky team from beyond the arc. In their eight losses, Tennessee has made just 26 percent of its 3s. The Vols can’t win unless they have a good night in this area. But Ohio State, because it often double teams, has been burned by open 3s. Why Ohio State will win » While much focus is on Ohio State’s offense and its explosive players, the Buckeyes’ defense can be disruptive. Their tall guards create problems when they use a zone press and they’re adept at double teams. They also have quick hands, poking balls away from big men inside. It more than compensates for the lack of interior size. Why Tennessee will win » The Volunteers have the depth to use multiple players on Evan Turner, starting with Scotty Hopson. They force 16.5 turnovers per game, a hefty amount. Turner is turnover prone, especially if teams cover him fullcourt and are physical in the process. Teams have made just 39.3 percent of their shots vs. Tennessee. The Examiner predicts » The Buckeyes have too much scoring on the perimeter. They can also push the pace by having four players who can rebound and immediately fast break without needing to pass. Center Dallas Lauderdale will control the inside with his shot blocking. A second-half run will make the difference for Ohio State. No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 11 N. Iowa X-factors » History does not favor Northern Iowa. Since 1985, when the tournament expanded to its current format, teams from the bottom half of the bracket have gone 13-40 in the Sweet 16. While the Panthers have never been this far in the tournament, Michigan State has played in eight Sweet 16 games in the last 12 years, going 6-2. Why Michigan State will win » Coach Tom Izzo has a 33-11 record in the NCAA Tournament. MSU has the inside strength (No. 2 in the NCAA in rebounding margin) to match up with UNI, and the Panthers don’t have the backcourt quickness to take advantage of the loss of MSU point guard Kalin Lucas (ruptured Achilles). Why Northern Iowa will win » Michigan State is 0-2 in games that Lucas did not start. The Spartans are lost without him, as they showed in the second half against Maryland when they blew a 16-point lead. UNI will patiently make the most of its possessions, while leaderless MSU will fritter away many of its own. The Examiner predicts » UNI is flat-out good. The Kansas upset was not a fluke. The Panthers have been in the tournament five of the last seven years and took BCS conference teams to the wire in each appearance. MSU has chemistry issues, especially without Lucas. UNI has none. Northern Iowa is the pick, 56-50. |
No. 3 Baylor X-factors » St. Mary’s center Omar Samhan (21.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg) has played well and talked even better — he’s the tournament’s best quote, by far. But he didn’t face a frontcourt with Baylor’s length in the first two rounds. Quincy Acy (9.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Ekpe Udoh (13.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.8 bpg) give the Baylors a sizeable advantage inside — pun intended. Why Baylor will win » The Bears boast a cadre of interesting names, but they also can win in interesting and different ways. Not only will they dominate defensively with their size and an intimidating 2-3 zone, but their backcourt will give the Gaels fits, with big-time shooter LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg) and floor general Tweety Carter (15.1 ppg, 6.0 ppg). Why St. Mary’s will win » The Gaels are having more fun than any team in the tournament and have nothing to lose. In Mickey McConnell (12.3 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Matthew Dellavadova (12.3 ppg, 4.4 apg), they have a backcourt that is both unselfish and lethal from beyond the arc. A few threes, very few turnovers, another master showing from Samhan and the dream lives on. The Examiner predicts » It’s no longer about the Bears’ lengthy postseason drought — no NCAA wins in 60 years before last weekend — but proving that last year’s run to the NIT final was just the beginning. St. Mary’s might start hot, but Baylor doesn’t ever get blown out. The Bears may be inconsistent at times, but they have too many weapons and match up perfectly to maul the Gaels’ Cinderalla hopes. No. 1 Duke When » Friday, 9:57 p.m. X-factors » For Duke, it has to be a scoring options off the bench. The big three — Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith — will get their points. Freshman guard Andre Dawkins plays 13 minutes per game, is a decent 3-point shooter (37 percent) and is solid from the free-throw line (78 percent). Why Duke will win » Singler, Smith and Scheyer are all capable of a big night. The Blue Devils rank in top 30 of Division I in both scoring and scoring defense, hit their free throws and rarely turn the ball over. Defensive rebounding is a weakness, though, so the play of 7-foot-1 senior center Brian Zoubek is critical. Why Purdue will win » By limiting turnovers against a Duke team that excels at forcing them. The Boilermakers also need to knock down some open perimeter jumpers — a huge weakness even before star forward Robbie Hummel was lost with a torn ACL. Purdue shoots 32 percent from 3-point range. Junior center JaJuan Johnson (15.3 ppg) needs to hurt Duke inside. The Examiner predicts » Give Purdue credit for winning even after the devastating loss of Hummel. But the Boilermakers need to raise their level of play even higher to beat a Duke team that doesn’t give opponents much to capitalize on. Unfortunately, this team has hit its ceiling without Hummel. The Blue Devils advance to the Elite Eight in a rout. |
