In 1974, an 18-year-old Robin Yount hit .250 in 107 games for the Milwaukee Brewers. He turned 19 that September. The following year, at 19, he hit .267, en route to 3,000 hits and the Hall of Fame.
In 1906, a 19-year-old Ty Cobb batted .316 for the Tigers. He wouldn’t turn 20 until December of that year. He played 24 seasons, batted .366 for his career, and was one of the first five inductees to the Hall of Fame.
In 1963, a 19-year-old Rusty Staub played 150 games for the second year expansion Houston Colt 45’s. He batted .224, with six home runs and 45 RBI. Not great, but given that he had just turned 19 that April, not horrible either. He played 23 seasons and made six All-Star teams. While not a Hall of Famer, his career stats are quite similar to Tony Perez, Andre Dawson and Billy Williams, who are all enshrined in Cooperstown.
A handful of exceptional players began their big league careers while still in their teens. It’s quite rare, obviously. The rigors of a long season, particularly right after high school, can be enervating, not to mention the maturity required to bounce back from a slump.
Bryce Harper turned 18 last week. The first overall draft pick last June came into professional baseball with no shortage of self-confidence. His brief sojourn in the instructional league — a .300-plus average with power — was too small of a sample to get excited about. His one game in the Arizona Fall League on Wednesday — he went 1-for-4 with two RBI on a bases-loaded double that just missed being a grand slam — had the scouts in attendance oohing-and-aahing.
Harper’s on the taxi squad for the Scottsdale Scorpions, which means he can only play Wednesday and Saturday, so he figures to be pretty amped up when he’s in the lineup. Nationals’ brass may have to restrain themselves, too, if the results continue to impress.
The plan all along has been for Harper to experience professional baseball gradually. Start off 2011 in Single A ball, and if he has a solid first half, think about a look-see in Double A. Begin 2012 in Double A, and hope for a promotion to Triple A by July, and maybe a cup of coffee with the big club in September.
But already, the “what if?” factor is staring everyone in the face. What if he continues to hit good pitching solidly in the AFL? What if he tears up the Grapefruit League in March, displaying what many scouts say is the quickest bat they’ve seen in a teenage prospect? What if the ballclub doesn’t come up with another bat for the 2011 lineup?
I don’t advocate writing Harper’s name into the Opening Day lineup after a single solid performance in the AFL. If he couldn’t put up numbers considerably better than Staub or Yount did as rookies, he and everyone else would be terribly disappointed.
Still, should he continue to excel, there will be temptations that may be hard to resist. Sometimes the best intentions fall by the wayside.
Examiner columnist Phil Wood is a contributor to Nats Xtra on MASN. Contact him at [email protected].
