Now that he’s got a 3-stroke lead in the U.S. Open, is Dustin Johnson, 25, likely to fold? Sleeping on the lead in golf’s national championship has been a recipe for disaster for many, especially for those seeking their first major title.
Since 1965, when the Open went to an 18-hole format for the final day instead of the previous 36 holes, some of the third-round leaders who have blown up include Rickie Barnes, who shot 76 last year in the final round, Aaron Baddeley (80/2007), Kenneth Ferrie (76/2006), Retief Goosen (81/2005), Gil Morgan (81/1992), Tom Kite (78/1989), Greg Norman (75/1986), T.C. Chen (77/1985), Hale Irwin (79/1984), Frank Beard (78/1975), Tom Watson (79/1974), Jim Simons (76/1971), Miller Barber (78/1969), Bert Yancey (76/1968), and Marty Fleckman (80/1967).
In general at the Open, previous major winners have been more successful in closing the deal (11 of 25 — 44 percent) than non-major winners (8 of 31 – 25.8 percent). The most spectacular closing rounds were posted by major title-holders Tiger Woods, who extended his 10-stroke lead to 15 in the 2000 Open, and Tony Jacklin, who expanded his 4-stroke lead to 7 in the 1970 Open.
Those with 3-stroke leads have won two of six times. Those victors were Jim Furyk (2003) and Hale Irwin (1979). Those who have lost 3-stroke leads range from the obscure (George Burns/1981) to the great (Arnold Palmer/1966) and from the good players with major titles (Goosen/2005) to the good players without (Miller Barber/1969).
Since 1965, third-round leaders have been just as apt to shoot 80 or worse (four times) and they have been to break 70 (four times). The average score for the third-round leader has been 73.4.
Below are the results for third-round leaders since 1965:
2009 — Ricky Barnes (1-stroke lead) – 76, T2
2008 — Tiger Woods (1-stroke lead) – 73, won playoff (Mediate)
2007 — Aaron Baddeley (2-stroke lead) – 80, T13
2006 — Kenneth Ferrie (tied for lead) – 76, T6
2006 — Phil Mickelson (tied for lead) – 74, T2
2005 — Retief Goosen (3-stroke lead) – 81, T11
2004 – Retief Goosen (2-stroke lead) – 71, won by 2 strokes
2003 – Jim Furyk (3-stroke lead) – 72, won by 3 strokes
2002 – Tiger Woods (4-stroke lead) – 72, won by 3 strokes
2001 – Retief Goosen (tied for lead) – 71, won playoff (Brooks)
2001 – Stewart Cink (tied for lead) – 72, 3rd
2000 – Tiger Woods (10-stroke lead) – 67, won by 15 strokes
1999 – Payne Stewart (1-stroke lead) – 70, won by 1 stroke
1998 – Payne Stewart (4-stroke lead) – 74, 2nd
1997 – Tom Lehman (2-stroke lead) – 73, 3rd
1996 – Tom Lehman (1-stroke lead) – 71, T2
1995 – Tom Lehman (tied for lead) – 74, 3rd
1995 – Greg Norman (tied for lead) – 73, 2nd
1994 – Ernie Els (2-stroke lead) – 73, won playoff (Roberts, Montgomerie)
1993 – Lee Janzen (1-stroke lead) – 69, won by 1 stroke
1992 – Gil Morgan (1-stroke lead) – 81, T13
1991 – Payne Stewart (tied for lead) – 72, won playoff (Simpson)
1991 – Scott Simpson (tied for lead) – 72, lost playoff (Stewart)
1990 – Mike Donald (tied for lead) – 71, lost playoff (Irwin)
1990 – Billy Ray Brown (tied for lead) – 72, T3
1989 – Tom Kite (1-stroke lead) – 78, T9
1988 – Curtis Strange (1-stroke lead) – 72, won playoff (Faldo)
1987 – Tom Watson (1-stroke lead) – 70, 2nd
1986 – Greg Norman (1-stroke lead) – 75, T12
1985 – T.C. Chen (2-stroke lead) – 77, T2
1984 – Hale Irwin (1-stoke lead) – 79, 6th
1983 – Tom Watson (tied for lead) – 69, 2nd
1983 – Seve Ballesteros (tied for lead) – 74, T4
1982 – Tom Watson (tied for lead) – 70, won by 2 strokes
1982 – Bill Rodgers (tied for lead) – 74, T3
1981 – George Burns (3-stroke lead) – 73, T2
1980 – Jack Nicklaus (tied for lead) – 68, won by 2 strokes
1980 – Isao Aoki (tied for lead) – 70, 2nd
1979 – Hale Irwin (3-stroke lead) – 75, won by 2 strokes
1978 – Andy North (1-stroke lead) – 74, won by 1 stroke
1977 – Hubert Green (1-stroke lead) – 70, won by 1 stroke
1976 – John Mahaffey (2-stroke lead) – 73, T4
1975 – Frank Beard (4-stroke lead) – 78, T3
1974 – Tom Watson (1-stroke lead) – 79, T5
1973 – John Schlee (tied for lead) – 70, 2nd
1973 – Arnold Palmer (tied for lead) – 72, T4
1973 – Julius Boros (tied for lead) – 73, T7
1973 – Jerry Heard (tied for lead) – 73, T7
1972 – Jack Nicklaus (1-stroke lead) – 74, won by 2 strokes
1971 – Jim Simons (2-stroke lead) – 76, T5
1970 – Tony Jacklin (4-stroke lead) – 70, won by 7 strokes
1969 – Miller Barber (3-stroke lead) – 78, T6
1968 – Bert Yancey (1-stroke lead) – 76, 3rd
1967 – Marty Fleckman (1-stroke lead) – 80, T18
1966 – Arnold Palmer (3-stroke lead) – 71, lost Monday playoff (Billy Casper)
1965 – Gary Player (2-stroke lead) – 71, won Monday playoff (Kel Nagle)
Overall 19 of 56 leaders have closed deal
TIED FOR LEAD – 4 of 20 have won
1-STROKE LEAD – 7 of 17 have won
2-STROKE LEAD – 3 of 8 have won
3-STROKE LEAD – 2 of 6 have won
4-STROKE LEAD – 2 of 4 have won
10-STROKE LEAD – 1 of 1 has won
