3 college bowl games to watch this week

In more than 90 years of football, Fresno State, the champion of the Mountain West conference, has never had a 12-win team before, but it’ll get a chance to make history Saturday afternoon against Herm Edwards’ Arizona State squad.

Fresno State beat ranked Boise State in the snow in Boise in overtime in a thrilling conference championship game. The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the nation, allowing a mere 13.7 points per game.

Marcus McMaryion has been outstanding for Fresno State this season. The Oregon State transfer completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 3,453 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, and ranks third among “Group of 5” players with a 78.5 total QBR. He also has seven rushing touchdowns on the season. Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims have teamed up for nearly 1,000 rushing yards this season to go along with their combined 14 rushing touchdowns.

Meanwhile, KeeSean Johnson is having an incredible senior season for Fresno State with 93 catches, 1,307 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns. He’s the Bulldogs’ all-time leader in receptions with 273 and receiving yards with 3,430. No active wide receiver in the country has more career receptions than Johnson does and only one has more career receiving yards.

Unfortunately for the Sun Devils, they’ll be without the services of their top wide receiver, N’Keal Harry. Harry is one of the country’s best WR prospects and, unlike KeeSean Johnson, he’s sitting out the bowl game to make sure he doesn’t get injured. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has him ranked as the second-best wide receiver in the upcoming NFL draft.

Here’s a snapshot of just how important he was to Arizona State’s passing attack.

He led the Sun Devils with 73 catches for 1,088 yards and nine touchdowns. The closest person to those numbers is Kyle Williams with 40 catches, 432 yards, and one touchdown. That means that N’Keal Harry had 33 more catches, 656 more yards, and eight more touchdowns than his next most productive teammate. That’s the kind of production you can’t really duplicate.

Manny Wilkins, who has been very effective for the Sun Devils, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 19 touchdown passes and just four picks, will try to spread the ball around, but the 6-foot-4 Harry is simply a different class of athlete. In addition to Harry’s absence, one of the X-factors in this game will be Wilkins’ ability to run the ball. He finished the season averaging more than four yards per carry with over 400 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. His longest run of the season was a 45-yard touchdown run, so he has shown that he has some wheels.

The Line: Fresno State (-6.0)

My Pick: I think Fresno State is the better team and has one of the country’s best defensive units. It also helps that N’Keal Harry won’t be playing and the Bulldogs have had extra weeks of practice to prepare. I’m taking Fresno State to win and cover.

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl — UAB (10-3) vs. Northern Illinois (8-5) — Tuesday, Dec. 18th at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN

This bowl gives us a cool matchup between two conference champions.

UAB might be the biggest feel-good story in the sport. The football program was shut down in 2014 because of financial difficulties. It was revived in 2015, and the Dragons won 8 games in 2017 and 10 this season, capturing the Conference USA title.

Spencer Brown was one of Conference USA’s top running backs this season, racking up 1,149 yards on the ground and setting the UAB single-season record for rushing touchdowns with 16. Tyler Johnston III completes less than 57 percent of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdown passes. Perhaps that’s the reason Brown got 31 carries in the conference title game. He’s a workhorse, so expect to see a lot of handoffs to Brown on Tuesday night.

Northern Illinois wasn’t very impressive over the course of the season. The Huskies dropped three of their first four games and then lost two of their last three before beating Buffalo for the MAC title.

The Huskies allow a paltry 2.7 yards per carry, a mark that ties them with Clemson and Michigan State for the best in the country. Sutton Smith is a stud for Northern Illinois with 29 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss over the past two seasons. He just won his second consecutive MAC Defensive Player of the Year award after breaking his own single-season record for sacks and was named to the AP All-America first team.

Here’s a funny stat on Northern Illinois. The Huskies average more points allowed than points scored. They average 20.7 points per game on offense and give up 21.5 points per game on defense. And yet, the Huskies not only have a winning record, they won the conference championship!

The Line: UAB (-2.5)

My Pick: It has been an incredible season for UAB, but I think Smith and Northern Illinois’ stout run defense will be too much for the Dragons. I’m taking the points and the Huskies.

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl — Marshall (8-4) vs. South Florida (7-5) — Thursday, Dec. 20th at 8 p.m. EST on ESPN

Like Northern Illinois, USF allows more points per game on average than it scores. The Bulls allow 31.5 points per game on defense and are currently averaging 30.8 points per game on offense. South Florida got off to a great start this season, going 7-0 behind former Alabama and Arizona State QB Blake Barnett, but then it all came apart for Charlie Strong’s squad as the Bulls lost five in a row to close the season.

Jordan Cronkite became just the fifth player in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a season. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares against Marshall’s defensive front. Through 12 games, the Thundering Herd have yet to allow an opposing player run for 100 yards against them.

None of the quarterbacks in this game are anything like what these two programs used to have in Quinton Flowers for USF and Rakeem Cato for Marshall.

Marshall has a fairly balanced offense. Isaiah Green certainly isn’t the most accurate quarterback, but he does have 15 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Those numbers are merely good, not great. Watch out for Tyre Brady, one of Conference USA’s best wide receivers. He has 66 catches for 918 yards to go along with his nine touchdown receptions.

The big question mark for USF will be the health of Barnett. Strong played both Chris Oladokun and Brett Kean in his absence, and it didn’t work out well at all. If Barnett, who is recovering from a shoulder injury, is out or limited, that will be a big blow for the Bulls because the drop-off in terms of quarterback play will be significant.

South Florida runs the ball well, averaging more than 200 yards per game. This game will be strength against strength. The key battle in this game will be South Florida’s run game against Marshall’s run defense. Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage will have the edge.

The Line: Marshall (-2.5)

My Pick: Even though the Bulls are playing in their home stadium, they’re banged up and facing a Marshall squad that has proven its ability to stop the run. I’m going with the Thundering Herd to win and cover.

Noah Niederhoffer (@Noah715) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in D.C.