Make no mistake: The true winners of the NBA labor battle are the owners. By reducing the amount of basketball-related income that is guaranteed to the players from 57 percent to 49 to 51 percent, including 51.15 percent in 2011-12, about $300 million a year has shifted back into the owners’ pockets. But there are others who stand to gain and lose from the tentative agreement that has paved the way for the season to open Christmas Day:
Winners: star players; losers: middle-class players » While the overall value of a maximum contract (30 percent of a team’s total salary cap) won’t reach that of recent years, the chance for long-term security still exists for Bird rights players, who can re-sign with their current teams for five years. The door has also opened wider for young superstars, termed “designated players,” such as Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin and later perhaps John Wall. With incentives (All-NBA team, All-Star selections), they can receive a five-year max contract earlier than before. Qualified offers also will be better for young players who earn “starter” status via starts and minutes played.
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But while teams will make sure their stars get paid, the trade-off will be a larger number of role players sprinkled in at smaller numbers.
Winners: small-market teams; losers: large-market teams » The penalties for teams that go over the salary cap will be harsher. Instead of $1 for $1, try $2.50 for every $1 for teams more than $10 million over the cap, $3.25 for teams $15 million over and penalties for serial abusers. That will reduce the ability of notorious spenders such as Dallas and the Los Angeles Lakers to buy their way to a title.
Winners: smart general managers and dumb dealmakers; winners: player movement » The amnesty provision offers one free out to every team in the league — say goodbye to Orlando, Gilbert Arenas — though the required salary floor of 85 percent could give the Wizards pause with Rashard Lewis. But teams also will be allowed to waive players who sign new contracts under this CBA and “stretch” the salary cap impact. What’s that mean? The availability to bail on a bad deal or an obstinate player is greater than before. There’s room to make one bad deal and then make up for it with another bad deal. Meanwhile, stud general managers are going to thrive anyway.
– Craig Stouffer
