By this time next week, the approximately 575 voting members of the Baseball Writer?s Association of America will have received their Hall of Fame ballots.
I won?t be one of them. I?m not a member of the BBWAA, thoughI?ve been told I?ll be eligible for membership next year. But, inasmuch as you need 10 years of service before gaining voting rights, I?m guessing I?ll never have a vote, though I?m not losing any sleep over it.
It?s a foregone conclusion that Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn will easily tally more than 75 percent of the vote. The only question is: How much more of the vote will they get?
There?s never been a unanimous selection, but several players have topped 90 percent, including career Orioles Brooks Robinson and Jim Palmer. Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver each received 98.8 percent of the vote, which is a higher percentage than Babe Ruth received. Go figure.
If anyone were to top Ryan?s and Seaver?s percentages, Ripken and Gwynn would seem to be prime candidates. Ripken was the face of the game the year he topped Lou Gehrig?s consecutive games record. He was so much more than that, though many fans want to define his career by that record alone.
Gwynn won eight batting titles, including strings of three and four straight, and finished with a .338 lifetime average.
Both men played their entire careers for just one team. Both men avoided controversy, and more importantly, both enjoyed a cordial relationship with the baseball media.
It?s safe to say that neither Cal nor Tony will be distracted by the presence of the 500-pound gorilla on this year?s ballot, Mark McGwire.
Once the toast of the game when he hit 70 home runs in 1998, McGwire has seen his all-American image go down the tubes since he retired in 2001 amid allegations of steroid use. The last straw for many fans ? and voters ? was his pathetic performance on Capitol Hill in March 2005 when he danced around the issue of his own rumored use of the drug by saying, over and over, “I?m not here to talk about the past.” In retrospect, he should have called in sick that day.
A candidate must receive at least five percent of the vote in order to stay on the ballot. I?m quite sure McGwire will reach that number, but 75 percent? Not a prayer. Too many national baseball writers have gone on the record against his candidacy, and several cite not his alleged steroid use, but rather his lack of production beyond home runs.
Sure, McGwire hit 583 home runs, but overall he totaled only 1,626 hits. A career .263 hitter, he was only an adequate first baseman.
It?s true that every player who?s topped 500 homers has been elected, but it?s not always automatic: Both Eddie Mathews and Harmon Killebrew were denied induction their first few times on the ballot.
Ripken and Gwynn enjoyed careers that speak to everything positive about baseball. McGwire?s percentage of the vote this year will speak volumes to several future candidates for Cooperstown, whose names we won?t bother to mention.
Phil Wood has covered baseball in the Washington/Baltimore market for more than 30 years. You can reach him at [email protected].
