If the Republican National Convention ends up being noticeably scaled back, President Trump runs the risk of raising expectations yet again about his public campaign events and then failing to deliver.
Trump wants to move past the months of coronavirus lockdowns and return to traditional campaigning, especially his freewheeling “Make America Great Again” rallies, but the virus hasn’t cooperated. The GOP convention was moved from Charlotte, North Carolina, after state and local authorities couldn’t guarantee it would be allowed to proceed as a live, mass attendance event. Now, it is encountering similar problems with Jacksonville, Florida, officials as COVID-19 cases spike in the Sunshine State with a little over a month to go before Trump’s renomination.
The Republican National Committee on Tuesday poured cold water on reports it would be open to a largely virtual convention like the Democrats are planning in Milwaukee. “The RNC continues to work closely with local leadership in Jacksonville on planning for the convention, including on health and security measures, and the Department of Justice is in the process of allocating millions of dollars in a safety grant,” said RNC national press secretary Mani Merritt. “Jacksonville has accommodated upwards of 70,000 people for football games and other events, and we are confident in state, local and federal officials to be able to ensure a safe event for our attendees.” The Trump campaign referred inquiries to the RNC.
But the convention contretemps comes on the heels of other post-coronavirus Trump events that were hyped and then either didn’t happen or underperformed expectations. After the campaign touted a million tickets requested, a June rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, featured empty seats and failed to serve as the promised relaunch of Trump’s reelection bid. Campaign manager Brad Parscale and chief operating officer Michael Glassner were subsequently moved into other roles and replaced by Bill Stepien and Jeff DeWit, respectively.
A planned rally for Trump-endorsed Alabama Republican Senate candidate Tommy Tuberville did not happen, though Tuberville easily won his primary with over 60% of the vote. Neither did the Trump rally in New Hampshire that was supposed to replace it. The campaign cited weather concerns when scrapping the event.
In addition to deflating the base, the new pandemic campaign terrain threatens to move Trump out of his comfort zone as he is once again maneuvered into coping with the reality of public fears of the coronavirus rather than MAGA rallies and selling the “great American comeback.” The president has fallen behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 8.6 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and is behind in most of the battleground states.
“Republicans have got to work on energizing the base, and at the same time, appeal to independents and moderates. Typically, a rally in a swing state will bring that energy,” said GOP strategist Jon Gilmore. “That is no longer a reality in the coronavirus environment. My data as a Republican pollster bears that out. So how do we win? We’ve got to have disciplined, effective messaging that resonates with the American people and reach them in their living rooms and at the kitchen table.”
Not everyone is concerned about Jacksonville. “I think the only people who care about conventions these days are politicians who think they benefit from them and the people who actually go to them and get to party for a week. And frankly, an incumbent’s convention is a snooze for most people, I believe,” said a second Republican strategist. “Trump should and can give a speech outlining his vision for the next four years anytime he wants to, and maybe without the crowd there, he’ll let up on what people dislike most about him — insults and bullying — and actually talk about the issues for a change.”
Still, a live convention is meant to offer a series of contrasts with the Democrats. It would reinforce Trump’s argument that a return to normal is on the way and that he hasn’t bungled the federal coronavirus response as badly as Democrats and the media claim. It would give Trump an opportunity to show a national audience he remains more energetic than his rival, “Sleepy Joe.” And it would make it easier for him to continue to push for the reopening of everything from businesses and churches to the public schools if Republicans felt safe enough to attend their own convention.
The Republican National Convention is currently scheduled for Aug. 24-27.
