In November 2016, Republican pollster Ed Goeas was the first to figure out how Donald Trump pulled off the greatest upset since Harry S. Truman.
His polling tracked the 24% “swing vote” who didn’t like Trump or Hillary Clinton, a massive number that by Election Day had shortened to a still sizable 19%. “That swing vote broke 3-to-1 for Trump in the last week of the campaign,” he found.
In an interview, Goeas, president of the Tarrance Group, noted that the public had grown tired of Clinton and her 25 years in the public eye and was intrigued by the political novice Trump.
Now, after four years in office, Goeas said of Trump, “He is the ‘Hillary.’ He’s the one people have disliked for years.” And unlike in 2016, he said he believes the swing vote is just 6%-7%. And with Biden having a higher and more consistent approval rating than Trump, they will swing to the former vice president.
“Biden’s going to win,” said Goeas, the Republican half of the influential Georgetown University Battleground Poll, conducted with Democrat Celinda Lake.
In looking for hints to the election outcome, Secrets turned to some of the nation’s most prominent pollsters and found it a jump ball.
On the opposite side of Goeas, we went to John and Jim McLaughin’s McLaughlin & Associates, which has done work for the president.
They see victory, of course, and a late surge built in part off the Hunter Biden influence-peddling affair.
“It’s close; it’s where the country is right now,” said Jim McLaughlin. “These silly polls where Biden had double-digit leads were nonsense this year, just like they were against Hillary. They are trying to suppress Republican voters and donors.”
John McLaughlin said he sees the Hunter Biden scandal having an impact. “Yes, it’s impacting undecided voters and weak Biden voters, mainly independents, firing up Trump voters to turn out,” he said.
“Joe Biden has been running a character campaign against the president, but now, in spite of vast media establishment censorship of the story, through the president’s rallies, conservative talk radio, conservative TV, and social media, the majority of Americans are finding out Joe Biden was influence-peddling as vice president and allegedly received money from China. This is the biggest political scandal in history. ‘Bidengate’ will be bigger than Watergate,” he added.
In the middle is Democratic pollster John Zogby, who heads John Zogby Strategies and co-writes the Secrets weekly presidential report card. Like many pollsters, he’s not ready to call the race but sees little hope for Trump, despite the enthusiasm around him.
“The Hunter Biden story may have an impact, but Trump’s numbers have sort of frozen after gains,” he said. “Biden’s seem to be steadily in the 49%-50% range. Perhaps most importantly, the battleground states are still very close. We do know that early voting is showing a return of the Obama coalition, but we’re being told in polls that the Trump vote is coming out big on Election Day, and the GOP registrations are outpacing Democratic registrations in several states. Advantage Biden today,” he said.
But, he added, 2016 could repeat next month. “Like a largely clogged artery, there is little chance for normal blood flow. But it has been done. Exactly four years ago to this minute, there was little chance of a Trump victory, but it happened. Not likely today, but this race is not locked up yet,” he said.
