As a general rule, a president’s party tends to lose seats during midterm elections, and the losses are often steepest during the midterm elections of a president’s first term. In the last 100 years, a new president’s party has lost an average of 23 seats in the House of Representatives.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned in recent years, it’s that the old political rules don’t always apply to President Trump. First as a candidate and now as president, Trump has consistently proved the media and pollsters wrong, rewriting the presidential rulebook along the way.