Mike Huckabee’s announcement on Saturday that he will not make a second bid for the GOP presidential nomination has left Republicans with a large field of candidates but no clear front-runner. The GOP’s 2012 presidential slate got bigger last week, but Republicans fear it is not necessarily any better, especially since Huckabee was one of the better-known potential candidates.
The former Arkansas governor consistently led in the polls and had already proven he could rack up delegates in a presidential primary.
| GOP presidential primary |
| Announced candidates |
| Newt Gingrich: Former House speaker, announced his candidacy last week; polls near the top in the field |
| Tim Pawlenty: Former Minnesota governor, announced last month; polls near bottom |
| Ron Paul: Representative from Texas. Libertarian, 2008 candidate with grass-roots following |
| Gary Johnson: Former governor of New Mexico |
| Herman Cain: Former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza |
| Rick Santorum: Former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania |
| Potential candidates |
| Mitt Romney: Former Massachusetts governor, 2008 candidate, considered potential front-runner; formed exploratory committee, has all but declared his candidacy |
| Sarah Palin: 2008 vice presidential nominee with high name recognition; polls at the top of the field |
| Michele Bachmann: Representative from Minnesota with Tea Party following |
| Mitch Daniels: Governor of Indiana |
| Jon Huntsman: Former Utah governor, President Obama’s ambassador to China |
| Rudy Giuliani: Former mayor of New York City |
| Donald Trump: Real estate magnate, television personality |
His exit makes room for other conservatives such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who announced his candidacy on Twitter Wednesday but who barely cracks double digits in the polls.
Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul, of Texas, also declared his bid for the GOP nomination, dropping the news on ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Friday.
Their entry widens the current field to seven hopefuls, with a few other prominent names, most notably former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — who has tied or led Huckabee among voters — still weighing candidacies. Former GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is another big name who could jump in, and some are now placing bets on Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, another undecided.
But the field appears so wide open that even former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose 2008 campaign flopped, isn’t ruling out another run for the Oval Office.
“The opposition field to a sitting president usually seems weak until there is a nominee,” said GOP strategist Mark McKinnon. “But, when the nominee gets up on the convention stage and gives their acceptance speech, they suddenly appear to have a cape and an ‘S’ on their chest.”
Still, many voters can’t name the official candidates, and Republicans are quietly panicking over the possibility that they will not produce a contender capable of taking back the White House next year.
“I think there is a feeling on the part of a lot of Republicans that none of these current candidates will beat Obama,” said pollster Ron Faucheux, the president of Clarus Research Group who has spoken privately to GOP strategists about the race. “It’s driving them crazy because they feel like Obama is beatable but they just don’t have the right candidate.”
In addition to Gingrich and Paul, the candidates include former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Polls show Obama leaving most of these candidates in the dust of a double-digit lead, though there are hopeful signs for Republicans, too. Obama has just a 5-point advantage over Romney and a 7-point lead over Huckabee, a Public Policy Polling survey shows.
Faucheux noted that Obama’s bounce following the death of Osama bin Laden appears to be fading, making him an easier target.
“A Republican has a real shot at this,” Faucheux noted.
But who?
Gingrich, considered a top-tier candidate because of his high name recognition, is viewed negatively by many voters and has a messy personal history that includes two divorces. But he’s charismatic and can skillfully articulate the conservative message, which will attract GOP voters. Gingrich also came out of the gate swinging hard at Obama, calling him “the most successful food-stamp president in history” and accusing Obama of using Chicago-style politics to get things done.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said it is a mistake to discount the GOP field at this point.
“Think back over many elections,” Sabato said, referring to the 1988 Democratic field, dubbed the “seven dwarves,” that produced Michael Dukakis. “The presidential candidates for the out-of-power party were often derided as dwarves who were not up to the task. Eventually, though, one of the dwarves grows to giant status and wins the nomination.”
