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Two last-minute polls -- outliers from lesser-known pollsters -- show Trump basically tied with Cruz, and Rubio surging. (AP file photo/Chuck Burton)
Beltway Confidential

PARSING THE POLLS: Final Iowa edition

Timothy P. Carney -
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Trump’s unorthodox rally
Beltway Confidential

Trump’s unorthodox rally

Timothy P. Carney -
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There's a blizzard watch in effect starting at 6 p.m., an hour before the Iowa caucuses. (AP Photo)
Beltway Confidential

CAUCUS FORECAST: Bad weather will depress turnout a bit in Western Iowa

Timothy P. Carney -
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Beltway Confidential

Rick Santorum in Iowa, seeking victory in defeat

Timothy P. Carney -
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A Blizzard Monday afternoon would dramatically suppress voter turnout at the caucuses. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Beltway Confidential

CAUCUS FORECAST: Bad weather to hit Western Iowa just before caucuses begin

Timothy P. Carney -
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Such mailers are
Beltway Confidential

Cruz: ‘I will apologize to no one’ for criticized ‘voting violation’ mailer

Timothy P. Carney -
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Marco Rubio has pulled ahead of Ted Cruz in favorability. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Beltway Confidential

PARSING THE POLLS: Rubio has the most upside potential in Iowa

Timothy P. Carney -
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Dutch Reformed Christians describe their desired traits in candidates as respectful, showing compassion. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
Beltway Confidential

Cruz will carry the evangelicals, but can he carry the Dutch Reformed?

Timothy P. Carney -
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Rubio introduces the compassion angle often as a way to contrast himself with Cruz and Trump. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
Beltway Confidential

Rubio tries to balance compassion, toughness

Timothy P. Carney -
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Ted Cruz's argument to ethanol backers is this: I don't oppose ethanol, I just oppose federal mandates. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Beltway Confidential

Cruz defends himself in Ethanol Country

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