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The most basic analysis in this case, is that for a caucus, organization is very important, and Ted Cruz seems to have far superior organization to Donald Trump. (AP Photos)
Beltway Confidential

Parsing the polls: Des Moines Register confirms Cruz-Trump tie in Iowa

Timothy P. Carney -
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Ted Cruz camp's response followed up on multiple attacks from Donald Trump over the past day or two, which kept up Tuesday. (AP Photo)
Beltway Confidential

Parsing the Polls: Trump ties it up in Iowa

Timothy P. Carney -
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If President Obama were interested in honest self-criticism in his final State of the Union address, he would admit that he failed on this central promise. In fact, Obama totally abandoned the idea, if he ever believed in it at all. (AP Photo)
Columnists

Eight years later: Obama’s broken promise on the revolving door

Timothy P. Carney -
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POWER RANKINGS: Trump back on top, powered by large NH lead
Beltway Confidential

POWER RANKINGS: Trump back on top, powered by large NH lead

Timothy P. Carney -
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Good jobs, refugees, and making America great again
Beltway Confidential

Good jobs, refugees, and making America great again

Timothy P. Carney -
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ARG, which shows Trump at 25 percent, consistently has Trump lower than other pollsters. All other New Hampshire polls this month have Trump in the 33 percent-29 percent range. (AP file photo/Cheryl Senter)
Beltway Confidential

Parsing the Polls: Trump stays strong in N.H.; Cruz, Kasich showing potential

Timothy P. Carney -
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Ted Cruz camp's response followed up on multiple attacks from Donald Trump over the past day or two, which kept up Tuesday. (AP Photo)
Beltway Confidential

Parsing the Polls: Trump, Cruz Top National, Iowa, and New Hampshire surveys

Timothy P. Carney -
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Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., will join K Street lobbying and law firm Akin Gump. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
Beltway Confidential

The Great 2014 Cashout: Democrat Kay Hagan joins K Street giant Akin Gump

Timothy P. Carney -
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Sunday's poll confirms the picture of a small Cruz lead over Trump in Iowa. (AP file photo/John Locher)
Beltway Confidential

Parsing the Polls: WSJ/NBC/Marist poll confirms: Conservatives for Cruz; moderates for Trump

Timothy P. Carney -
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A Muslim man and woman, who were standing in protest at a Trump rally, seem to be escorted out by police. (CNN/Screengrab)
Beltway Confidential

The context of the Muslim woman’s removal from the Trump rally: A different protestor turned violent

Timothy P. Carney -
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