MANCHESTER, New Hampshire — A winner could be declared in the state-run New Hampshire primary as early as 9:30 p.m. EST on Tuesday, according to New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner.
That would mean avoiding the Iowa Democratic Party’s disastrous delay in reporting its muddled results from the Feb. 3 caucuses in that state.
Here are six things to watch as the results come in while Democrats vie for momentum in the race for the party’s nomination.
Pete Buttigieg on the heels of Bernie Sanders
New Hampshire is widely thought to be the neighboring Vermont senator’s race to lose. Sanders, 78, beat Hillary Clinton in the state’s 2016 primary by 22 points.
But former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg skyrocketed in state primary polls after he exceeded expectations and won the most delegates in the Iowa caucuses, though some of the results are being challenged. While he is still 7.4 percentage points behind Sanders in the RealClearPolitics average of presidential primary polls, the race is competitive, and a strong second-place finish could still be spun as a win for Buttigieg.
How big is the Joe Biden bust?
The former vice president has long said that his path to the Democratic presidential nomination does not rest on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, pointing to future contests in Nevada and South Carolina, which have a large proportion of minority voters, as the real testing grounds for candidates. But after his dismal fourth-place finish in Iowa, the pressure is on for him to perform better in New Hampshire.
Biden does not expect to win, but the question is, how bad will he lose? His state organizing team at the beginning of the month was about half the size of other top-tier candidates. He rapidly shifted his campaign message over the last week and went negative on Buttigieg and Sanders. The RealClearPolitics average has him tied for fourth place with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and barely behind Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
Klo-mentum
After Klobuchar won delegates in her fifth-place Iowa finish, the onetime lower-tier candidate is riding a wave of momentum in New Hampshire.
A pair of tracking polls released on Monday put her above Biden. She is getting bigger crowds, and she received editorial board endorsements from the three biggest local papers in the state: the Union Leader, the Seacoast papers, and the Keene Sentinel.
Coming in fourth place or above would be a major win for her centrist campaign.
Voter turnout
Iowa Democratic Party officials were prepared for a record-breaking number of people, as many as 300,000, to caucus last week. But Iowa’s turnout of 176,400 was on a par with 2016 levels, much lower than 2008’s 240,000, an indication that voter enthusiasm is not as high for Democrats in 2020 as they hope. It also hurts the strategies of Sanders and Warren to energize first-time and irregular voters.
About 251,000 people cast ballots in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, lower than the record 287,500 votes in 2008 but higher than the 220,000 ballots cast in the 2004 primary.
Warren’s last stand?
Common analysis for much of the primary cycle was that Warren had a similar advantage in New Hampshire that Sanders has: being from a neighboring state. Voters in New Hampshire are familiar with Warren.
But she placed third in Iowa despite a large organizing effort, has steadily sunk in state primary polls over the last month, and is getting less attention from the press and voters than other top candidates. Over the last week, Warren has indicated that she expects a long primary fight, but a disappointing showing could change her calculus.
Dropouts imminent
Unlike previous years, no candidates dropped out of the Democratic presidential race following the Iowa caucuses due to the unusual delay in results. That could change in New Hampshire.
Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard all skipped campaigning in Iowa leading up to the caucuses and put all their resources on New Hampshire, but they barely register in state polls. There is also a question of how long entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who focuses on a platform of a $1,000-per-month universal basic income, will stay in the race despite having dedicated fans if he does not win any delegates.
