Richard Skinner for the Brookings Institution: Whether the Republican nominee is Jeb Bush or Scott Walker or Marco Rubio or someone else, the GOP will endorse a major tax cut. This was not always true. In the 1950s and 1960s, Republicans like Dwight Eisenhower and Barry Goldwater prioritized balancing the federal budget and expressed skepticism about broad tax cuts, at least without accompanying spending reductions. But since the late 1970s, deep “supply-side” tax cuts have become the party orthodoxy. No matter the economic context or the lack of personal enthusiasm of the candidate, the GOP will back slashing marginal rates. …

There’s about a 50-50 chance that the next president will be a Republican. Almost certainly a Republican president would be accompanied by a Republican Congress, which will be highly motivated to pass the new GOP president’s agenda. Tax cuts can be enacted by reconciliation, as George W. Bush did in 2001, so they cannot be blocked by a Democratic filibuster. (It’s also possible that some red-state Democrats—a somewhat shrunken breed—might back a tax cut.) We also know that candidates try to fulfill their campaign promises and that party platforms are actually pretty good predictors of an administration’s policies. Few issues unite the GOP like tax cuts. As Americans head to the polls, they ignore the debate around taxes at their own peril.