Sen. Lindsey Graham is facing the most serious political threat of his career while also leading one of the Senate’s most contentious and partisan battles over a Supreme Court nominee.
The South Carolina Republican announced hearings for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett will begin on Oct. 12, setting a schedule that will make it possible for Senate Republicans to hold a confirmation vote a week before the Nov. 3 election.
Graham, who is chairman of the Judiciary Committee, will take center stage next week when Barrett’s confirmation process formally begins. At the same time, his Democratic opponent, Jaime Harrison, has suddenly closed a wide gap in the polls and is now tied with Graham, who just weeks ago was considered a shoo-in for a fourth term.
The latest Quinnipiac Poll shows Graham and Harrison each with 48% of the vote, a stunning shift from Graham’s solid lead last summer.
“Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.
Quinnipiac’s polling reflected several other recent surveys that found the two candidates in a dead heat.
Cook Political Report, one of the most trusted non-partisan election analysts, on Wednesday shifted the race into the “toss up” category, meaning it could go either way on Nov. 3.
“Ultimately, everything had to fall into place for Jaime Harrison, and it did,” Jessica Taylor, who edits the Senate and Governor’s races for Cook, said.
Successful fundraising has played a key role in Harrison’s climb in the polls. A former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party and associate chair of the Democratic National Committee, Harrison has benefited from massive fundraising hauls that have enabled him to saturate the state with campaign advertising. Harrison’s ads focus on unity, character, and hope, and attack Graham for his association with Trump. They don’t mention his party or liberal platform, a move to appeal to the Republican-leaning electorate.
“He’s been able to define himself on his own terms from the start,” A GOP operative told the Washington Examiner.
A campaign spokesman said the ads allowed Harrison to conceal he would adhere to a liberal-leaning agenda most South Carolina voters would reject.
“‘Hiding Harrison’ thinks he can hide his radical views from voters and run from reporters, but South Carolinians know a liberal Democrat when they see one,” Graham campaign spokesman T.W. Arrighi told the Washington Examiner. “Our internal polling has us on track for a victory in November, but Senator Graham is fighting for every vote, as he never takes anything for granted.”
Harrison, whose agenda includes expanding Medicaid and broadband access, is reaping the benefits of an electorate that has soured somewhat on the Republican Party and Trump during the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic downturn.
The Quinnipiac Poll shows South Carolina voters divided on Trump and Biden along the exact same lines as Graham and Harrison.
That’s a big decline for Trump from 2016, when South Carolina voted for him over Hillary Clinton by a 14-point margin.
The poll showed a 50 percent disapproval rating for the president’s handling of the coronavirus and economic slowdown.
Graham, who frequently speaks to Trump, tweeted to the president Wednesday to consider a bipartisan coronavirus aid package worth about $1.5 trillion.
“Time to come together to help America deal with COVID as we move toward a vaccine,” Graham said.
While Harrison has significantly outspent Graham on advertising in the state, Graham will be at the center of national news next week when he leads Barrett’s confirmation hearing and presides over a lineup of panel Democrats, including Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Democrats are eager to derail Barrett’s nomination any way they can.
South Carolina Republicans are hoping the hearings will galvanize conservatives behind Graham enough to boost their voter turnout in South Carolina on Nov. 3.
The South Carolina electorate leans Republican and every state and national office is held by the GOP.
“There are not enough Democrat votes for Jaime Harrison to win,” Nate Brand, press secretary for the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Washington Examiner. “He’s got to win over Republicans and Independents, but that won’t happen with how closely aligned he is with Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.”
The Barrett hearings, Brand said, “are going to be a huge help,” for Graham.
But Graham, who won his last reelection bid by 10 points, may have a more difficult time securing the support of Independents and women voters, who have also soured on Trump.
“The lean of the state may ultimately win out, but this is a jump ball race now because Harrison has been effective so far at winning over suburban women and disaffected moderate Republicans and independents who are frustrated with Graham,” Taylor said.
Graham and Harrison will face off on Friday at the second of three scheduled debates. Harrison brought a plexiglass divider to the first debate held last week in Columbia.
Harrison campaign spokesman Guy King told the Washington Examiner voters no longer trust Graham.
“Jaime Harrison’s values-driven campaign is exciting voters across the political spectrum, and addressing issues that Lindsey Graham forgot about long ago — like healthcare, broadband internet, and COVID relief for small businesses,” King said. “Less than a month from election day, this movement is in a prime position to defeat Lindsey Graham and bring hope back to all 46 counties of South Carolina.”
