Tensions between the United States and Iran, boiling after the U.S. killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani on Jan. 3, have now returned to a simmer. Tehran’s ineffective response seems calibrated to avoid a damaging reprisal. But Tehran’s reluctance to risk further open hostilities suggests that it will return to its old playbook of asymmetric, indirect attacks against the U.S. The sweet spot for Iran is an attack that wounds the U.S. but has enough murkiness around ultimate responsibility that the Trump administration would struggle to justify a vigorous response.

Africa could be the site of such an attempted revenge tour.