Democrats have cast Mississippi’s Senate runoff election on Tuesday as a chance to surprise the GOP once more and pull out a win, just like Sen. Doug Jones did last year when he defeated controversial candidate Roy Moore in neighboring Alabama.
But Jones himself isn’t buying that.
“[I]t is certainly an uphill climb,” Jones told the Washington Examiner when asked about the race Monday. “For sure. He knew that going in. Everybody knew that going in, but he’s made a really good race out of this, so we’ll see what happens.”
Jones was helped nearly a year ago by what Republicans now view as a uniquely flawed candidate. The outspoken Moore lost the race in large part after allegations surfaced of improper sexual relations with underage women.
Most political operatives say there’s nothing like that going on in Mississippi, where the Democrat, former agriculture secretary Mike Espy, who is black, is facing Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., who was appointed by the state’s governor when Sen. Thad Cochran stepped down due to ill health.
Jones downplayed Espy’s chances — even citing Hyde-Smith’s gender as a positive.
“The South is making a lot of changes, and you can only look and see what’s happened in the elections in Georgia, Florida, and Texas and the candidates that did so well there and the House seats that flipped,” Jones said. “The fact that you have in Mississippi a women on one hand and an African-American on the other hand in and of itself is a hell of a good sign.”
Democrats aren’t banking on a win. Some say Espy was hurt by just having a few weeks between the general election and the runoff race, a gap that included the Thanksgiving break. In contrast, Jones had more than two months to prepare for his battle with Moore.
Republicans are also confident they’ll avoid a repeat of last year’s Alabama fiasco.”It’s just ridiculous,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, when asked about comparisons between Mississippi and Alabama. “I just don’t see any similarities … There was an alleged pedophile on the ballot who was on the front page of every newspaper of the English-speaking world for two months.”
One Mississippi GOP operative expects Hyde-Smith to win by about 6-10 points, noting that she’s built her lead back up after a video emerged of her saying she’d sit “front row” at a public hanging.
Another big factor is President Trump, who rolled into Mississippi for two rallies the night before the election that will decide the final Senate seat for the next Congress. “I think it will be positive,” Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, said of Trump’s appearances in Mississippi. “You don’t want to repeat what happened in Alabama. This is not Alabama. She’s a good candidate … She’s been a good member. People like her on both sides of the aisle. She works well with people. I don’t think it’s a similar situation.”
Joe Nosef, a former Mississippi GOP chair, believes the two Monday rallies will be “critical” for Hyde-Smith, who has made other unforced errors in the final weeks. “We certainly believe it will be competitive,” Nosef said. “People in Cindy’s camp feel good — they believe she’s put out some fires.”
She’s also received some outside help to do that. The Senate GOP campaign arm and the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund have spent a combined $2.8 million to boost Hyde-Smith, largely panning Espy’s ties to the Clintons and his “shady” past.
According to three public polls of the race, Hyde-Smith leads by double digits. Nevertheless, some Republicans remained on the edge of their seat as they waited to see if they’ll have a 52-48 majority next year, or a 53-47 majority.
“I think she pulls it out,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., co-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “But I’ll be awake until I see it called.”
