BORDER SUPPORT NEEDED: With the surge of illegal migration across America’s border with Mexico on track to reach a 20-year high, the top U.S. military commander in charge of homeland defense says he anticipates the need for the National Guard supporting border security to continue beyond the end of this fiscal year in September.
“Border security is national security,” said U.S. Northern Commander Air Force Gen. Glen VanHerck, first at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing and later at a Pentagon briefing, at which he indicated the current deployment of troops to the border region, set to expire Sept. 30, could be extended or increased, pending a decision by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
“It will be the secretary’s decision going forward,” said VanHerck. “There is a request on the street to ask for additional support. Ultimately, the secretary of defense will make a risk assessment supporting and continuing the mission on the border.”
BORDER SECURITY OVERSHADOWS THREATS FROM CHINA AND NORTH KOREA AS COMMANDERS TESTIFY
WHAT THE GUARD DOES: The current support to Customs and Border Protection and Department of Homeland Security consists of 3,500 troops from 22 states, which are not directly involved in border enforcement but perform several vital functions that facilitate border security.
“First is detection and monitoring. So, we man sites and we provide information when we see migrants or others crossing the border to CBP so they can conduct their law enforcement mission,” said VanHerck. “We also provide aviation support with the use of 24 helicopters, UH-72s, that provide detection and monitoring from an aviation perspective … And the final thing, we provide ground support. Ground support in the maintenance of vehicles so that we can free up the law enforcement capable Customs and Border Protection Homeland Security folks to do the law enforcement mission.”
A RECORD PACE: Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas admitted yesterday that illegal border crossings are on a record pace since President Biden took office.
“We are on pace to encounter more individuals on the southwest border than we have in the last 20 years. We are expelling most single adults and families. We are not expelling unaccompanied children,” Mayorkas said in a statement.
“The situation at the southwest border is difficult. We are working around the clock to manage it, and we will continue to do so,” he said. “It will take time, and we will not waver in our commitment to succeed.’
Mayorkas is scheduled to testify this morning before the House Homeland Security Committee at 9:30 a.m.
FOUR PEOPLE RECENTLY ARRESTED AT SOUTHERN BORDER ARE ON TERROR WATCHLIST
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HAPPENING TODAY: As you read this Wednesday morning, it is already night in Seoul, which is 13 hours ahead of Washington time. Today, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin were to meet separately with their South Korean counterparts, Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook, in preparation for Thursday’s “2+2” U.S.-South Korea Foreign and Defense Ministerial, the first such contact between the two countries in five years.
With a cost-sharing agreement that roiled relations during the Trump administration now settled, the focus returns to how to get denuclearization talks with North Korea back on track, especially in light of this week’s bellicose warning from Kim Jong Un’s sister about small-scale U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
Experts have been parsing Kim Yo Jong’s cryptic message to the U.S. in two sentences of a statement released by the state-run North Korean news service: “We take this opportunity to warn the new U.S. administration trying hard to give off [gun]powder smell in our land. If it wants to sleep in peace for the coming four years, it had better refrain from causing a stink at its first step.”
“In so many words, the message is that the door is open to the U.S. for reengagement at some point,” says an analysis on the North Korea monitoring site 38 North, “but Pyongyang is still carefully watching and waiting for Washington’s ‘first step.’”
WHITE HOUSE RESPONSE: Asked about the reference to the U.S. “causing a stink,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Air Force One, “We don’t have a direct comment or response to the comments made from North Korea,” while noting that with Blinken and Austin in Seoul, “certainly the security of the region will be a topic of discussion.”
“So, our focus right now is working with, partnering with our partners, allies, on a range of issues including security,” she said. “Our objective is always going to be focused on diplomacy and denuclearization of North Korea.”
UK’S NUKES, 180 TO 260: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has unveiled a plan to boost the U.K.’s influence in the world that surprised some disarmament critics by including a declaration of the intention to boost Britain’s arsenal of nuclear warheads by over 40%.
“The UK possesses the smallest stockpile of any of the nuclear weapon states recognised by the NPT [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons]. We are alone amongst those states in only operating a single nuclear weapon system,” notes the 10-year plan titled “Global Britain in a competitive age.”
The U.K’s Royal Navy has a fleet of four nuclear-armed submarines armed with nuclear-tipped Trident missiles. “In 2010 the Government stated an intent to reduce our overall nuclear warhead stockpile ceiling from not more than 225 to not more than 180 by the mid-2020s,” the report says. “However, in recognition of the evolving security environment, including the developing range of technological and doctrinal threats, this is no longer possible, and the UK will move to an overall nuclear weapon stockpile of no more than 260 warheads.”
NO COMPELLING RATIONALE: The announcement was immediately challenged by arms control advocates as having “no compelling military or strategic rationale.”
“This is a needless and alarming reversal of the longstanding British policy to reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons,” said a statement from the Arms Control Association.
“The review attributes the need to increase the total stockpile ceiling from 180 warheads to 260 warheads to ‘the evolving security environment, including the developing range of technological and doctrinal threats,’ but it does not explain how raising the number of warheads will enhance deterrence against these threats,” the group said.
“In addition, the United Kingdom’s new direction will complicate the Biden administration’s efforts to pursue further bilateral arms control and reduction measures with Russia. Russia has been adamant that any future nuclear cuts beyond the limits contained in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) should take into account the arsenals of the other nuclear-armed states, especially the United Kingdom and France. Moscow can be expected to make this argument even more forcefully after the United Kingdom’s announcement today.”
WHO NEEDS ICBMs? A new report from the Federation of American Scientists is the latest to question the need for the ground-based missile leg of America’s nuclear triad.
The report “Siloed Thinking,” by FAS Research Associate Matt Korda, suggests that the rationale for America’s 400-plus nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles is rooted in flawed Cold War thinking.
The report also argues that the outcome favoring a brand-new ICBM replacement program, known as the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), needs to be reevaluated in light of cost escalation and surrounding budget pressures.
“The ‘nuclear triad’ is neither sacred nor immutable, however, as the United States faces imminent decisions that will affect the country’s force posture until the end of the 21st century, a review of the ICBMs’ role in U.S. nuclear strategy is certainly warranted,” the report says.
ARMY’S ARCTIC STRATEGY: The U.S. Army yesterday released its Arctic strategy, “Regaining Arctic Dominance,” which outlines how the Army will “generate, train, organize and equip our forces to partner with Arctic allies and secure our national interests and maintain regional stability.”
“The release of this strategy is timely, especially given increasing levels of great power competitor activities in the Arctic region. Operating in the Arctic allows the Army to powerfully project our forces to enhance our ability to respond in competition, crisis and/or conflict,” the Army said in a statement.
CUT THE DEFENSE BUDGET, PLEASE: Some 50 progressive members of Congress who are part of the Defense Spending Reduction Caucus are calling for President Biden to cut the defense budget, which they say “ballooned to $740 billion — a more than 20% increase,” under President Donald Trump.
The House members, led by Democrats Barbara Lee of California and Mark Pocan of Wisconsin, have written a letter to Biden calling for a decrease in his forthcoming proposed Pentagon budget for fiscal year 2022.
“As we face a global pandemic and unprecedented economic crisis, the needs of American families far outweigh the need to continue feeding our bloated military defense budget,” said Lee. “Analysis from experts across the political spectrum show that we can make significant cuts to our defense budget without compromising our national security or reducing the support, pay or benefits provided to our men and women in uniform and their families.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US and Japan warn China not to attack Taiwan
Washington Examiner: Biden team to tell Chinese officials ‘the error of their ways’
Washington Examiner: US allies diverge on Uyghur genocide as Blinken prepares for China meeting
Washington Examiner: Border security overshadows threats from China and North Korea as commanders testify
Washington Examiner: Biden border czar: ‘Our own message is getting out less than smugglers’
Washington Examiner: Four people recently arrested at southern border are on terror watchlist
Washington Examiner: ISIS threat on the rise, prompting US to deploy special operations forces to new country
AP: Top US officials weigh North Korea options in talks in Seoul
Reuters: U.S. General Says North Korea Might Flight Test New ICBM Design ‘In The Near Future’
New York Times: In Tokyo, U.S. Officials Adopt Harsh Language On Beijing’s Activities
USNI News: SOUTHCOM’s Faller: China Used Pandemic to Expand ‘Corrosive, Insidious Influence’ in Central, South America, U.S. Influence ‘Eroding’
AP: US sanctions 24 China and Hong Kong officials ahead of talks
Reuters: Taiwan Bolsters South China Sea Deployments, Gets U.S. Submarine Parts Approval
Washington Post: Army initially pushed to deny District’s request for National Guard before Jan. 6
Virginian-Pilot: House Democrats Want A Fast Repeal Of 2002 Iraq War Authorization
USNI News: Dual Letters From Congress Signal Hill Headed for Defense Spending Showdown
Air Force Magazine: NORAD: Advanced Cruise Missile Threat Requires Better Awareness
Air Force Magazine: SOUTHCOM Looking at New Intelligence-Gathering Ops to Counter ISR Shortfall
Seapower Magazine: Navy, Marine Corps Release Unmanned Campaign Plan
New York Times: Trump’s Incomplete Border Wall Is in Pieces That Could Linger for Decades
Washington Post: Capitol Police officer suspended after antisemitic document found at checkpoint
Task & Purpose: Troop levels, airstrikes, COVID vaccinations — How the Pentagon continually fails at transparency
AP: In war-torn Syria, uprising birthplace seethes 10 years on
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 17
9 a.m. — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing on “Climate Change, National Security, and the Arctic,” with Sherri Goodman, senior fellow at the Wilson Center; and retired Vice Adm. Dennis McGinn, member of the Center for Climate and Security’s Advisory Board. http://appropriations.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/pyIl-HNhQgk
9:15 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army virtual Global Force Next forum with Army Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commanding general of the Army Space and Missile Defense Command; and Gen. John Murray, commanding general of the Army Futures Command. Register at https://www.ausa.org/events/global-force-next
9:30 a.m. — House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “The Way Forward on Homeland Security,” with Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. http://homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on “Advancing Effective U.S. Policy for Strategic Competition with China in the Twenty-First Century,” with Elizabeth Economy, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; and Tom Shugart, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for New American Security. http://foreign.senate.gov
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee hearing on “DHS Management Challenges,” with former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; and former Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. http://appropriations.house.gov Livestream at https://youtu.be/kHUGPd-I9FM
10:30 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist for the Global Opinions section of the Washington Post. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar
12:30 p.m. — Air Force Association a virtual discussion with Air Force Maj. Gen. Deanna Burt, commander of the U.S. Space Command’s Combined Force Space Component Command and deputy commander of the Space Force Space Operations Command. https://www.afa.org/events
2 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace webinar: “Lessons from the Four Party Peace Talks on the Korean Peninsula,” with former State Department Northeast Asia Division Chief Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center; former Senior Policy Adviser for the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Philip Yun, president and CEO of the World Affairs Council of Northern California; former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs Chip Gregson, senior adviser at Avascent International; and Frank Aum, senior expert on North Korea at USIP. https://www.usip.org/index.php/events
THURSDAY | MARCH 18
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion on Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, with author Josh Rogin, columnist at the Washington Post; and Kenneth Weinstein, fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual event: “Maintaining the Momentum: U.S.-India Relations Under the Biden Administration,” with Kenneth Juster, former U.S. ambassador to India, Richard Verma, former U.S. ambassador to India; Richard Fontaine, CNAS CEO; and Lisa Curtis, Director of the CNAS Indo-Pacific Security Program. https://www.cnas.org/events/special
1:30 p.m. — Nextgov, Defense One and Route Fifty webinar: “The Roadmap to Modernization,” with Stephen Russell, chief of the U.S. Combat Capabilities Development Command’s Information Sciences Division. https://roadmapseries.nextgov.com/agenda/
1:30 p.m. — The Hill webinar: The Future of Modern Expeditionary Warfare,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn.; Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; retired Rear Adm. Sinclair Harris, former commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command; David Forster, chairman of the Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition; and Steve Clemons, editor-at-large at The Hill. https://thehill.com/event
2:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Congressional Perspectives on the Future of the Navy,” with Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis.; Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
4 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “China and the Weaponization of Information,” with retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation; Lesley Seebeck, professor at Australian National University; Nina Kollars, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College; Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; and Patrick Cronin, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
6:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion on 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, with co-authors retired Adm. James Stavridis and Elliot Ackerman; and former Undersecretary of Defense Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing director of WestExec Advisers. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
FRIDAY | MARCH 19
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, the Norwegian Ministry of Defense, and the Royal Norwegian Embassy virtual conference: “Looking North: Security in the Arctic,” with Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ine Eriksen Soreide; and Norwegian Minister of Defense Frank Bakke-Jensen https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on “the latest situation on the Korean peninsula,” with retired Adm. Harry Harris, former U.S. Pacific Commander and U.S. ambassador to South Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/korea-chair-capital-cable-22
9:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar “Revitalizing America’s Alliances,” with Rep. Andy Kim, D-N.J.; Zack Cooper, research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute; Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Paris office; Sara Bjerg Moller, assistant professor at Seton Hall University; Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Project on International Order and Strategy; and Victor Cha, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/revitalizing-americas-alliances
12 p.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “NIST (National Institute for Standards and Technology) Standards for CMMC (cybersecurity maturity model certification),” with Katie Arrington, special assistant to the assistant Defense secretary of acquisition for cyber; and Ron Ross, NIST computer scientist and fellow. https://www.afcea.org/event
1:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Remembering the First ‘Space War,'” focusing on Operation Desert Storm in 1991, with Air Force Lt. Gen. B. Chance Saltzman, U.S. Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Cyber and Nuclear. https://www.brookings.edu/events/remembering-the-first-space-war
TUESDAY | MARCH 23
7 a.m. EDT/12 p.m. CET — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends NATO foreign ministers two-day meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s news conference will be streamed live https://www.nato.int
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 24
11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: “Lessons from New START and the Road Ahead for Nuclear Arms Control.” with Rose Gottemoeller, former undersecretary of state, arms control and international security; and CSPC Board Chairman Amb. Thomas Pickering, former undersecretary of state for political affairs and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Russia, India, Israel and Jordan. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “North Korean Threat Perception and the US-South Korea Alliance: Political-Military Dimensions,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former U.S. Korea commander; retired South Korean Lt. Gen. In Bum Chun; Andrei Lankov, director, NK News, professor, Kookmin University; Evans J.R. Revere, former deputy chief of mission and charge d’affaires, U.S. Embassy, Seoul. https://www.hudson.org/events
WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31
12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander. https://zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Given the changing security and technological environment, we will extend this long-standing policy of deliberate ambiguity and no longer give public figures for our operational stockpile, deployed warhead or deployed missile numbers. This ambiguity complicates the calculations of potential aggressors, reduces the risk of deliberate nuclear use by those seeking a first-strike advantage, and contributes to strategic stability.”
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, announcing the U.K. will increase its stockpile of submarine-launched nuclear weapons from 180 to 260.
