Swing district voters who identify as Republicans and independents support populist policies resembling those promulgated by former President Donald Trump but are inclined to shun sharp-tongued insurgents, according to fresh polling from a centrist group that supports pragmatic conservatives.
The Republican Main Street Partnership last month surveyed 600 registered voters across six battleground House districts in the South, Midwest, and Northeast. The data revealed remarkably strong support for “conservative populist policy” reminiscent of the Trump administration’s legislative agenda. At the same time, these Republicans and independents expressed opposition to congressional candidates who run as “uncompromising insurgents” intent on shaking up Washington rather than “uphold the institutions of government.”
MCCARTHY: GOP ‘BIG TENT’ HAS ROOM FOR ANTI-TRUMP WING
“Competitive swing districts across the country are the key to Republicans winning back the majority in 2022,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “Voters want good, commonsense, conservative policies, without the noise and rhetoric.” The group announced earlier this year that it plans to invest $25 million in swing House districts to help the GOP recapture Congress and halt the advance of conservative provocateurs loyal to Trump.
In its latest survey, 26% of respondents expressed a favorable opinion of President Joe Biden, who is proposing a series of liberal programs and trillions in government spending. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California fared worse, registering a 14% favorability rating. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York clocked in at 17%.
House Republicans are just a handful of seats shy of the majority, with their bid to reclaim power in the 2022 midterm elections bolstered by decennial reapportionment and history. In every midterm election since 1982, except two, the party that holds the White House has lost seats in Congress. Redistricting will alter district boundaries, potentially impacting the politics of the House seats polled by the Republican Main Street Partnership.
The data is still useful, although the margin of error, plus or minus 6.3 percentage points, is on the high side. The poll, first shared with the Washington Examiner Tuesday, was conducted April 13–22 online and via text to the web. Results were weighted by age, education, ethnicity, gender, and geography.
Democrats have gained in suburban districts since Trump’s victory in 2016, and the seats the group examined could provide a window into the campaign messaging most likely to be effective for Republican candidates in competitive House contests next year. Those surveyed included Georgia’s 6th Congressional District and Kansas’s 3rd, both held by Democrats; and four held by Republicans: Missouri’s 2nd and 3rd, North Carolina’s 9th, and Pennsylvania’s 1st.
Messages that registered highest revolved around cracking down on China for “unfair trade practices, illegal cyberattacks and lying about COVID-19 and demanding justice for imprisoned religious minorities and pro-democracy activists.” Seventy-four percent of voters said they were more likely to support a Republican for Congress who ran on that message. Strengthening border security and stopping the surge of unaccompanied minors and opposing Biden’s “gun control actions” both polled between 65% and 70%.
For a party in which insurgent populism has lately been ascendant, the style of candidate Republicans and independents prefer, according to this survey, was noteworthy.
When asked if they preferred “someone who would uphold the institutions of government” or “an insurgent who will shake up the status quo,” 57% picked the former, while 31% went with the latter. Similarly, 56% said they wanted a candidate who “works across the aisle to get legislation passed” versus 35% who want a candidate who “holds firm to their belief regardless of circumstances.”
CLICK HERE FOR MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
On the list of issues that matter most, Republican Main Street Partnership polling suggests Republicans and independents in swing House districts are putting the coronavirus and issues related to the pandemic in the rearview. Thirty-seven percent cited as their top priority “D.C. corruption/dysfunction,” followed by 18% who said immigration, 10% who said healthcare, and 10% who said jobs and the economy. Interestingly, just 8% said “election reform” was a top priority.
Efforts to overhaul election regulations in the states have been a major priority of Republican leaders and the GOP base in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, with many in the party agreeing with Trump’s claim that the election was stolen. In the survey, 32% of respondents described themselves as “very conservative,” with 27% saying they were “somewhat conservative” and 26% saying they were “moderate.”
