An analysis of recent elections shows that Democrats’ chances of holding on to one or both congressional majorities might be better than previously expected, even with President Joe Biden’s support in free fall.
Biden’s poll numbers have cratered in recent months, with any number of aggregates showing his approval currently hovering between 30% and 40%.
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However, one analysis concluded Tuesday that generic congressional ballot polling, which asks respondents if they would vote for a nameless Republican or Democrat running in their district, is a significantly more accurate predictor of midterm results than presidential approval ratings.
Across the previous four elections, FiveThirtyEight found, generic polling “missed” the House national popular vote margin by 2.5 points on average, compared to a 5.5 point average margin of error for presidential approval ratings.
That would mean Democrats are significantly more competitive with Republicans in 2022 than Biden’s numbers suggest. Democrats trail on generic ballots by just 1 point heading into late July. For comparison, Biden’s current net approval rating of minus 19 points marks the worst differential recorded by any president at this point in his term, dating back to Harry Truman.
One Democratic strategist suggested to the Washington Examiner that the current generic gap could be quickly erased with just a few more legislative pushes.
“The whole narrative heading into this cycle has been focused on voter enthusiasm,” that person explained. “Basically, progressives who voted for Biden in 2020 against Trump look like they won’t turn out in 2022 after the administration and party leadership failed to make any significant strides on most of the issues they care about. Throw in seismic abortion loss, and you’ve got the makings of a red wave.”
Still, that person thought the “stunning” bipartisan gun control bill, possibly joined with a scaled-down climate change and clean energy bill, prescription drug pricing reforms, and legislation currently being considered by the Senate that would codify same-sex marriage protections, could be enough to reinvigorate voter enthusiasm.
A senior Democratic aide similarly suggested to the Washington Examiner that Republicans’ own vocal campaigning and proclaimed “vision” for the future of the country will also significantly drive Democratic voter turnout.
“What we’ve also seen over the last few weeks is … for the first time, voters are kind of seeing — as President Biden’s done this all year, trying to frame this as as a choice: Don’t judge me by the almighty, judge me by the alternative,” the aide explained. “Voters are actually starting to do that, especially with the Dobbs ruling, and it’s like, ‘Oh s***, this is what’s on the other side.'”
“The more that Republicans are talking about their vision for America, whether it’s a national abortion ban, whether it’s cutting Social Security and Medicare, the more Republicans are talking about that, the better it is [for Democrats], and that’s what we’re seeing right now,” that person closed. “The [Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee], the [Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee], the [Democratic National Committee] are consistently talking about these plans. Campaigns are putting money behind highlighting these plans. Voters are seeing what Republican control looks like, and that’s terrifying for people.”
Other political operatives think these Democrats are whistling past the graveyard. A veteran Republican campaign strategist told the Washington Examiner that “nothing is going to help Democrats outrun Biden in November.”
“The bills Biden and Democrats are trying to pass don’t actually do anything to address the No. 1 issue for voters of both parties: the economy,” that person added. “Forget them claiming inflation was going to be transitory. They’re literally trying to redefine ‘recession’ to avoid saying that’s where we’re headed. That doesn’t exactly project, ‘Hey, we’ve got a plan to lower costs of food and gas.’ It shows they have no idea how to tackle the problems Biden’s own reckless spending created.”
Most polling indicates that Republicans will easily take back a majority in the House, but forecasters still view the Senate as a toss-up. Republicans hold 21 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot this November and lack any races in which polling indicates an unambiguous pickup.
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Meanwhile, a number of senior DNC and DSCC officials previously told the Washington Examiner that the party is focused on protecting their incumbents. They are also confident about winning races in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
