EVERYBODY TAKE A BREATH: President Trump chose more sanctions, not bombs to respond to Iran, after it became clear that its attack on two U.S. bases in Iraq Wednesday night resulted in no U.S. or Iraqi casualties.
“Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world,” Trump said in an address to the nation. “Our missiles are big, powerful, accurate, lethal and fast,” he said. “The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean we have to use it. We do not want to use it. American strength, both military and economic, is the best deterrent.”
WHAT IRAN LAUNCHED: At the Pentagon late yesterday Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Iran launched 16 short-range ballistic missiles into Iraq, of which at least 11 hit the Al Asad Air Base, about 175 miles from the Iranian border, and about 115 miles from Baghdad. And at least one missile landed at a U.S. installation near Erbil, in northern Iraq, roughly 60 miles from the border.
Each missile carried a 1,000 to 2,000-pound explosive warhead, according to Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley.
The initial battle damage assessment indicates the missiles hit tents, taxiways, parking lots and damaged a helicopter, but, according to Esper “nothing I would describe as major,” according to the Pentagon.
THEY DIDN’T MISS ON PURPOSE: Milley — as did other military experts scoffed at the idea that Iran purposed aimed the missiles at areas that would not cause casualties, in order to send a message it did not want war.
“The points of impact were close enough to personnel and equipment … that I believe, based on what I saw and what I know, is that they were intended to cause structural damage, destroy vehicles and equipment and aircraft, and to kill personnel,” Milley said. “That’s my own personal assessment.”
It’s an assessment shared by retired Marine Gen. John Allen, former deputy CENTCOM commander, who noted the ballistic missiles, unlike U.S. satellite-guided cruise missiles, are not that accurate.
“They have no idea in the end where those missiles are going to come down,” Allen told CNN. “So I don’t buy the idea that they were pure in their targeting with no intention ultimately of hurting the United States or Iraqi forces.”
WHAT IT WAS LIKE: Although the U.S. got advance word of the impending strike from Iraq, there was still a scramble at the U.S. bases, as troops were unsure of exactly what was coming.
“There’s sirens that go off on these bases. … There’s bunkers and jersey barriers, and there’s places to go hide and all that,” Milley told reporters at the Pentagon. “We have various levels of protective gear, and we have various scatter plans that do certain things.”
THE VIEW FROM THE BUNKERS: “When it happened, it caught us by surprise,” one European military officer told the Washington Examiner, reports my editor Susan Katz Keating who reached personnel at the Erbil base, which includes troops from the United Kingdom, Denmark and Canada.
“Most people had time to get into the bunkers,” an American said. “Everyone I know made it in.”
The mix of military people and civilians hunkered inside the shelters, not knowing when they would come out — or what they would come out to. “We spent several hours inside them,” the American said. The open-sided bunkers allowed rain to blow in on those huddling for safety. “We waited inside in the cold and rain. There was nothing to do but sit there and wait.”
When the all-clear came through, the group emerged, not knowing what destruction awaited.
“We did a head count, as much as we could,” the European officer said. “It was chaos trying to find out the damage.” By morning light, people on base knew that everyone survived and that little was amiss. “We had some cleanup, but really not much.”
IT’S NOT OVER: “I think we’re actually involved [in] a slow motion shadow war,” said former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, who is now a CNN contributor. “More sanctions on the Iranians, that that is actually going to induce more reaction and retaliation by the Iranians. It just, it may not play out in the next day or week or month.”
“I think what Iran will do or consider doing is those things which are attributable, but deniable. And this is the nature of what they’ve done in the past, and I don’t see any reason for that to change,” he said.
“The Iranians know that there is no way that they can compete with the United States in a conventional head-to-head symmetric conflict,” said Gen. Allen. “So they will do what they have done always in that region, is, they will motivate the Quds Force, which is a special operations force which is largely a terrorist organization.”
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Democratically-controlled House of Representatives is poised to vote today on a war powers resolution intended to limit President Trump’s authority to engage in military action against Iran, reports the Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio.
“Last week, the Trump Administration conducted a provocative and disproportionate military airstrike targeting high-level Iranian military officials,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a statement. “The Administration took this action without consulting Congress. This action endangered our servicemembers, diplomats and others by risking a serious escalation of tensions with Iran.”
“Having been deployed myself, I can imagine how betrayed our service-members abroad feel right now knowing Democrats in Congress are working to strip @realDonaldTrump of his ability to ensure their safety,” tweeted Indiana Republican Rep. Jim Banks, an Afghanistan war veteran and member of the House Armed Services Committee. “@SpeakerPelosi’s War Powers resolution is a disgrace!”
The measure is somewhat symbolic as it is likely doomed in the Senate, and would certainly not be signed into law by President Trump.
LET’S AT LEAST HAVE THE DEBATE: “My point to my colleagues is this. The framers of our Constitution understood war and they understood escalation. And they believed the antidote to escalation is deliberation, deliberation by Congress,” said Sen. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat will introduce his own war powers resolution as soon as next week.
“I introduced a resolution that will get a privileged place on the Senate floor where I can compel a vote about the question of whether the president should be able to wage war on his own or whether he should have to come to Congress if he wants to wage war against Iran,” Kaine said in an interview with CNN.
WORST BRIEFING EVER: The debate over war powers has at least two Republican backers, Sens. Mike Lee of Utah and Rand Paul of Kentucky, who emerged from yesterday’s closed door briefings from administration officials irate that the specific intelligence behind the attack on Iran commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani was not shared, and senators were told that publicly questioning the legitimacy of the strike was tantamount to empowering the enemy.
“Probably the worst briefing I have seen at least on the military issue in the nine years that I have served in the United States Senate,” said Lee afterward. “To come in to tell us that we can’t debate and discuss the appropriateness of military intervention against Iran it’s un-American, it’s unconstitutional and it’s wrong. That was insulting. That was demeaning to the process ordained by the constitution and I find it completely unacceptable.”
“What Senator Lee and I are doing are standing up and saying, the power resides in Congress, and we’re going to fight for it,” said Paul on CNN. “It’s not a personal fight. I don’t dislike President Trump. I’m going to support him in his campaign. I think he has many good attributes and has done a lot of good things for the country. But on this specific issue, I do believe there’s a separation of power. It’s a tug of war. And Congress should assert themselves and say, the war-making power was given to us. The main reason the war- making power was given to Congress is, our founding fathers did not want perpetual war.”
SKEPTICS REMAIN SKEPTICAL: As is the case with most contentious issues these days, it appeared no minds were changed by the classified briefings provided yesterday by Defense Secretary Esper, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and CIA Director Gina Haspel.
“The briefing was incredibly thin in facts,” said Kaine. “They did not support any claim of an imminent threat that would justify any actions taken to eliminate Suleimani.”
“There was no specific information given to us of a specific attack. Generalities, stuff you read in the newspaper was given to us,” said Paul. “I didn’t learn anything in the hearing that I hadn’t seen in a newspaper already. And none of it was overwhelming that X was going to happen.”
“I was in the same briefing and reached the same conclusion,” said Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin, also on CNN. “They gave us the most general conclusions about threats to the United States. But when it came to any specificity, it just wasn’t there.”
‘A VERY ROBUST DISCUSSION’: At the Pentagon, Secretary Esper insisted the briefings went well. “So a very good discussion, a very robust discussion, and you know I thought it was a good chance for all of us to kind of share our views and to consult on next steps,” he told reporters, while noting the briefers were not able to share some of the most convincing intelligence.
“Most members of Congress do not have access to the intelligence that I think was the most compelling,” he said. “That’s just simply the nature of intelligence, and it’s restricted to the Gang of Eight.”
GETTING NATO ON BOARD: In his address yesterday, Trump called on NATO allies Britain, France and Germany to follow the U.S. lead, and withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and said he would be asking NATO to “become much more involved in the Middle East.”
“The civilized world must send a clear and unified message to the Iranian regime: Your campaign of terror, murder, mayhem will not be tolerated any longer,” he said.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke with Trump by phone, and in a statement said the two leaders “agreed that NATO could contribute more to regional stability and the fight against international terrorism” and also agreed to stay in close contact .
IRAN’S MISSILES: Our friends over at the the Center for Strategic and International Studies have put together a handy “Missile Threat microsite” which tracks Iran’s missile arsenal and capabilities. It notes that this week’s attacks demonstrate Iran’s reliance on ballistic missiles as a tool for signaling, diplomacy, deterrence and retaliation.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: ‘A very strange coincidence’: Diplomats suspect terrorists brought down Ukrainian plane in Iran
Washington Examiner: PHOTOS: First images of ‘dud’ Iranian missile in Erbil reveal impotent attack
New York Times: 3 Hours From Alert to Attacks: Inside the Race to Protect U.S. Forces From Iran Strikes
Washington Examiner: ‘Unexpected and chaotic’: Inside Erbil air base during Iranian missile attack
New York Times: Its Barrage Left Little Damage, But Iran Has Deadlier Weapons
Washington Examiner: ‘Despicable lies’: Susan Rice ridicules Trump claim that US paid for missiles fired from Iran
Time: After Retaliation, Iran’s 40-Year Conflict With U.S. Likely to Return to the Shadows
Breaking Defense: Prepare For the Worst From Iran Cyber Attacks, As DHS Issues Warning: Experts
AP: EU promises to try to save Iran nuclear deal despite setback
Washington Post: Caught In Middle, Iraq Pleads For Calm After Iran’s Strikes On U.S. Military
Wall Street Journal: NATO Outmaneuvers Russia In Balkans
Foreign Policy: Putin Moves To Heighten Russia’s Role After Suleimani Killing
Wall Street Journal: Turkey, Russia Urge Truce in Libya as They Expand Roles in Country
Navy Times: Timeline Set To Get Troubled Flattop Ford To Sea
Daily Mail: China Launches Its Nuclear-Capable, Hypersonic Nuclear Missile DF-26 Which ‘Could Reach US Territory And Sink Aircraft Carriers’ In A Military Drill
Defense News: The Surface Navy Needs To Fundamentally Reshape Itself To Defeat The Chinese Threat, Study Finds
USNI News: Carrier Lincoln Days Away From Longest Deployment Since Vietnam War; In Hawaii Now
Reuters: U.S. Appeals Court Stays Judge’s Ruling Blocking Military Funds For Border Wall
Breaking Defense: V-280 Tiltrotor Can Fly Unmanned, Bell Says
Calendar
THURSDAY | JANUARY 9
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion “Examining NASA’s Role in U.S. Foreign Policy, with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine; and Todd Harrison, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. https://www.csis.org/events
10 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations briefing on “Strategic Dynamics of Iran’s Continuing Asymmetric Warfare: What Implications for the United States and the Region?”, with Anthony Cordesman, chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; David Des Roches, associate professor at the National Defense University; Thomas Mattair, executive director of the Middle East Policy Council; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR. https://events.r20.constantcontact.com
11 a.m. 7777 Arundel Mills Blvd., Hanover, Md. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion, with Dave Frederick, deputy director of the National Security Agency’s Cybersecurity Directorate. https://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register
2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion “U.S.-Iran Tensions Rising with Iraq in the Middle,” with Abbas Kadhim, director of the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative; Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative; William Wechsler, director of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center; and Thomas Warrick, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “2020 Challenges Ahead,” with Kathleen Hicks, director of the CSIS International Security Program; Stephanie Segal, chair in political economy at CSIS; Sarah Ladislaw, director of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program; Beverly Kirk, director of the CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative; and Bob Schieffer, former host of CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” https://www.csis.org/events
FRIDAY | JANUARY 10
8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power to the Warfighter” seminar, with Air Force Maj. Gen. John Shaw, combined force space component commander of U.S. Space Command and commander of 14th Air Force. http://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion “The Army’s Strategy in the Indo-Pacific,” with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/events
MONDAY | JANUARY 13
11:15 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies National Security Summit, with keynote address by Vice President Mike Pence. Register at https://fdd.wufoo.com/forms
TUESDAY | JANUARY 14
8 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 15
8 a.m. 2401 M St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
10 a.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “DOD’s Role in Competing with China,” with Michele Flournoy, former undersecretary of defense for policy; Andrew Philip Hunter, Center for Strategic and International Studies; retired Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt, senior fellow, Center for Naval Analyses. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Iranians should know that the president has all the cards right now. The contingency capabilities of the United States gives him the capacity both to de-escalate, but, if necessary, to escalate in a very major way very quickly with overwhelming force… The fact that they came through a series of multiple back channels trying to stand down any American retaliation for that attack, I think, indicates that they’re desperate.”
Retired Marine Gen. John Allen, on CNN.
