House Democrats in November may have a chance to expand their majority in an unexpected place — a sprawling area in eastern Kansas that usually favors Republicans.
The Kansas 2nd Congressional District backed President Trump by double digits in 2016. But this year, first-term Rep. Steve Watkins faces a spirited Republican primary challenge in a race centering on state voter fraud charges. That has some Democrats eyeing the seat as a surprise opportunity as the party seeks to expand the House majority it won in 2018.
On Tuesday, Watkins was charged by state officials on three felony counts of voter fraud, including “interference with a law enforcement officer, falsely report a felony intending to obstruct, voting without being qualified, and knowingly mark/transmit more than one advance ballot,” according to county records.
The charges were announced just before a scheduled debate against former Kansas State Treasurer Jake LaTurner, who is primarying Watkins for the seat. Voters will head to the polls Aug. 4 to decide which man will face off against the likely Democratic nominee, Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla.
“We need to put our best foot forward. Clearly our current congressman, with three felony charges and a misdemeanor charge, is not the person to do that,” LaTurner said that night.
Although Trump won the district by 19 points in the last presidential cycle, Democrats believe the GOP is vulnerable. In 2018, Watkins won the seat by under a percentage point and less than 3,000 votes. His tenure has been marred by controversy, with accusations of sexual misconduct and questions surrounding campaign finance irregularities.
Watkins narrowly won his 2018 House Republican primary, with 26.5% of the vote, defeating six challengers. Much of his campaign was financed by his father, who said in March the Federal Election Commission opened an investigation into potential campaign finance law violations.
“I can’t think of anyone in Congress who has done more to inflict wounds on himself than him,” said University of Kansas political science professor Patrick Miller. “Up front the biggest frustration for me is that there’s been zero public polling here. We have zero polling for the Republican primary and the general election. I think we have people making assumptions on who the stronger candidate is, but it’s backed by zero data,” referring to some locals saying LaChance has a better shot at holding the seat for Republicans.
Despite a strong majority of voters in the district supporting Republicans on the national level for decades, many seem far more pragmatic in local and statewide races. Voters in Kansas’s 2nd Congressional District backed Democrat Nancy Boyda for one cycle in the 2006 midterms, and a majority of voters supported Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly in 2018 over GOP challenger Kris Kobach.
“Democrats have a shot, but it would be a very tough district to flip. Barack Obama got 44% here in 2008 then 42%. There is a solid Democratic base here,” said Miller. “Donald Trump carried this by about 20 points, but the district voted for the Democrat in the last two gubernatorial races. If Democrats are sensing a good environment nationally, then they should be bullish on races here.”
For now, all eyes are on Watkins, 43, a West Point graduate who spent five years on active duty with the U.S. Army. On Friday, he stepped down from his House committee assignments, following the felony indictments, as required by Republican Conference rules. A number of conservative groups in the state, including Kansas For Life, withdrew its endorsement of Watkins.
“Throughout my entire career, I have put service above myself, and this instance is not different,” Watkins said in a statement Friday about his departure from the Foreign Affairs, Veterans’ Affairs and Education and Labor committees. “That’s why I’ve chosen to temporarily and voluntarily step aside from my committees, allow the committees to continue their critical work and fight these bogus charges.”
Editor’s note: This article has been updated to make clear that Rep. Steve Watkins has been charged with voter fraud, not indicted by a grand jury.
