‘I SEE A BIG FIGHT COMING’: Anticipating the possibility of a Democratic takeover of the Senate, House, and White House, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee is bracing for a battle royal with members of the progressive wing of his party who are seeking deep cuts in the Pentagon’s budget.
“I see a big fight coming,” Washington state Rep. Adam Smith told reporters on a conference call Wednesday. “From some of the preliminary responses, from the stuff that I’ve read, it’s not a productive fight at the moment.”
Smith is facing pressure from the Left to shift spending away from the military to domestic programs, which he currently is resisting. “I am unconvinced that our national security policy would be what it needs to be if we cut the defense budget by 10% or 20%, but I am wide open to the conversation and the debate and the discussion,” he said.
“If you’re asking me where I’m at today, my sense is that we’re looking at more of a flatline situation, somewhere in the $720 billion to $740 billion range going forward,” he said. “I would put myself in the flatline, $10, $20 billion lower, perhaps … but a $20 billion cut out of $740 billion isn’t 20%, isn’t even 10%.”
SPENDING MUST BE LINKED TO STRATEGY: Smith complained that too much of the debate over defense spending is knee-jerk, summing up the Republican approach as “whatever we are spending, we need to spend more just on general principle.”
Smith accused the more conservative Republicans in Congress of believing that “no matter what we’re spending, no matter how many ships we have, no matter how many planes we have, no matter how many missiles we have, we need more.”
“That’s basically their philosophy — spend more money, buy more stuff, and we’ll therefore be better,” he said. “I think that’s a mistake.”
On the other side, progressives seem to also just want to cut the defense budget on general principle. “I’m going to have a problem with that,” Smith said. “There has to be a national security strategy behind those cuts. It can’t just be, ‘Well, I’d rather spend the money elsewhere. I don’t like the Defense Department. I’m going to cut their budget.’”
‘WE GOT TO PASS SOMETHING’: “If we’re in charge, that means we got to pass something. We can’t just sit back and, you know, say, ‘Oh, that’s a terrible plan. I would never do that.’ We actually have to have a plan, and we have to pass it if we’re going to be able to govern,” said Smith, who says his job will be to link any cuts in the budget to a coherent strategy.
“I want to have that discussion, and I want to have that conversation about what’s the strategy, what’s the plan going forward,” he said. “I view it as my job to sift through those opinions and come up with a plan.”
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HAPPENING TONIGHT: The final face-to-face showdown between President Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden takes place at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.
Trump has complained that the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates is, in fact, very partisan and in the bag for Biden. In an interview with Fox Tuesday, Trump complained about a decision by the commission to mute microphones to give each candidate two minutes to speak uninterrupted before opening the discussion up to crosstalk.
“I think the whole thing is crazy. This commission, I had problems with them four years ago where they stifled out my mic during my conversation with crooked Hillary, and, you know, they muted my mic,” he said. “Look, these people are not good people, this commission.”
“What we’re doing here is we’re not making a new rule. We’re just enforcing the rule that both candidates agreed to in the first place,” said Frank Fahrenkopf, co-chairman of the commission, in an interview on CNN. “We think that this decision is in the best interest of the people of the United States to hear these two candidates, at least for that period of time without any interruption, as to where they stand on the issues that are so important today.”
Fahrenkopf also dismissed the Trump campaign’s complaint that the third debate is traditionally focused on foreign policy. “We issued the rules for the first and last debate in June of this year, and both candidates accepted the rules,” he said. “The 90 minutes is divided into six sections, the moderator, solely the moderator — the commission has nothing to do with it — names the subject matter of each section.”
THE VIOLENCE IS TOO HIGH: We don’t hear much from the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, who has generally kept a low profile since he took over the NATO-led Resolute Support mission two years ago.
But in an interview with the BBC’s Lyse Doucet, Gen. Scott Miller admitted that the Taliban is testing the limits of its agreement to reduce violence in return for a withdrawal of all U.S. troops by next May.
“We’ve shown great, a great deal of restraint because we’re trying to make this peace power process work,” Miller said. “And at the same time, we’ll defend our forces. That’s important for everybody to know. The protection of the coalition, it’s not negotiable.”
While Miller did not single out the Taliban by name, he referred to their recent offensive in Afghanistan’s southern Helmand province, where U.S. warplanes carried out strikes against Taliban fighters to protect Afghan government troops.
“The violence is too high. That’s been what we’ve said all along is all sides need to bring the violence down,” Miller said. “And again, it can’t be one side. All sides need to bring it down.”
The Taliban said this month’s airstrikes were in violation of the Feb. 29 agreement with the U.S. “That’s not helpful. You know, the rhetoric on all sides. I would say not only the violence but the rhetoric on all sides needs to go down,” Miller told the BBC. “Our air support is within the U.S.-Taliban agreement … we defend the Afghan security forces. So, that air support is in compliance.”
THEY WANT ‘A BOARD SEAT AT RAYTHEON’: Picking up on a theme his father used last month, Donald Trump Jr. told a rally audience in Pennsylvania Tuesday that the nation’s military leaders wanted to keep troops in Afghanistan because, “War Inc., pays really good, but the only way to get that fortune is by keeping us at wars.”
“Don Jr tells a PA rally his father pressed US generals to explain why we’re still in Afghanistan, but they couldn’t,” tweeted Liz Goodwin, the Boston Globe’s Washington deputy bureau chief. “The end goal is they want a board seat at Raytheon,” she quoted him as saying.
Goodwin noted that Defense Secretary Mark Esper is a former lobbyist for Raytheon.
Last month, President Trump accused his top generals of wanting to fight wars to keep weapons-makers happy. “I’m not saying the military is in love with me; the soldiers are,” Trump said at a White House news conference. “The top people in the Pentagon probably aren’t because they want to do nothing but fight wars so that all of those wonderful companies that make the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy.”
LIVE LONG AND PROSPER: The Space Force has formally stood up its “SpOC,” short for Space Operations Command. SpOC is so named, not after the Vulcan from Star Trek, but to distinguish it from SOC, the Special Operations Command.
The SpOC will operate out of Peterson Air Force Base, Colorado, where the Washington Examiner’s Abraham Mahshie caught up with Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond at yesterday’s ceremony to mark the creation of the new command.
“We’re here to stand up Space Operation Command, which really represents the most significant restructure of the national security space, probably since the early 80s,” said Raymond.
“We’re organizing this in a way that will also get after our culture, to say to the very young airman aerospace professionals that are part of this organization, make decisions and move out,” he told Mahshie.
GEN. OR ADM.? Still unresolved is whether the new Space Force will stick with Air Force ranks, or switch to naval ranks to make it more like the seafaring service, and the spacefaring services of science fiction.
The House version of the National Defense Authorization Act has a provision sponsored by Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, that would mandate that officers use Navy ranks like admiral, commander, and ensign, instead of general, colonel, and 2nd lieutenant.
Yesterday, House Armed Services Chairman Adam Smith said, “There are a lot more important and difficult issues involved in making sure that the Space Force functions well and properly uses taxpayer dollars.”
“The folks at Space Force, let me say, have not contacted me directly about this issue. So, you know, so I think they probably do have their priorities in the right place,” Smith said. “You know, whatever we choose on the ranks, the Space Force ought to go ahead and be able to deal with it. This is not something they should be prioritizing as a concern. Whichever way we go, it’ll be just fine.”
DUMPING ON ESPER’S VISION OF 500 SHIP NAVY: Former acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modley doesn’t think much of Defense Secretary Esper’s “Battle Force 2045,” which calls for a 500-ship Navy of both manned and unmanned vessels.
“What we have now is simply a proclamation with no details, about a 500 Ship Navy by 2045. Without a national consensus, and the corresponding funding for it, that number is meaningless, and the timeframe is strategically irrelevant,” Modly said in an email to Craig Hooper, a senior contributor at Forbes.
“If you are going to increase the size of the fleet from 275 to 355, or 500, and you aren’t going to increase the Navy’s topline to pay for it, you’ve merely created a mathematical challenge for yourself that cannot be solved,” Modley said.
INDUSTRY WATCH: Northrop Grumman Corporation reported third-quarter 2020 sales increased 7% to $9.1 billion from $8.5 billion in the third quarter of 2019. Third-quarter 2020 net earnings increased 6% to $1 billion.
“Northrop Grumman had a strong third quarter as we continue to execute our growth strategy, deliver solid program performance and focus on the well-being of our people,” said Kathy Warden, chairman, chief executive officer, and president, in a press release. “In both our third quarter and year to date results, we achieved higher sales, earnings and cash, while strengthening our foundation for the future with robust new business awards and a record backlog.”
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Exclusive: Gen. Jay Raymond previews Space Operations Command stand up
Washington Examiner: ‘We’re always fighting time’: Urgency to upgrade US nuclear deterrent as rival upgrades near completion
Washington Examiner: Trump targeted by Tehran as Russians and Iranians meddle in 2020 election, intel officials say
Washington Examiner: ‘Transparency isn’t threatening’: US designates six Chinese media organizations as foreign missions
Bloomberg: State Department Approves $1.8 Billion In Weapons For Taiwan
Wall Street Journal: Pompeo, Esper To Visit India To Bolster Ties, Counter China
Defense One: As the U.S. Slumps Away, China Subsumes African Security Arrangements
Just the News: Iran’s ‘clumsy’ spoof emails to voters are latest in rash of cyber hacks from Tehran regime
USNI News: Russian Navy Seen Escorting Iranian Tankers Bound for Syria
Bloomberg: Boeing’s Arizona Chopper Plant Under Scrutiny by Army Team
Breaking Defense: Esper’s New Push For Allies; Gilday Unveils ‘Tech Bridge’ To Royal Navy
Forbes: Former Navy Leader Tom Modly Opens Fire On ‘Battle Force 2045’
Task & Purpose: The Marine Corps Is Investigating A Deployed Machine-Gunner Who Seems To Be A Nazi Fanboy
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 22
6 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers chaired by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. https://www.nato.int
8 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Arms Control and Strategic Stability: Chinese Perspectives,” with retired Chinese Gen. Yao Yunzhu, director of the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Center of China-American Defense Relations; Li Bin, professor at Tsinghua University; Frank Rose, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy and Technology; and Lindsey Ford, fellow in the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies. https://www.brookings.edu/events/arms-control
8:30 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “Multilateralism and Armed Drones: Escaping the Gridlock,” with William Malzahn, senior policy adviser in the State Department’s Office of Conventional Arms Threat Reduction; UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial Killings Agnes Callamard; Maritza Chan, deputy permanent representative of the mission of Costa Rica to the UN; Wim Zwijnenburg, humanitarian disarmament project leader at PAX; and Rachel Stohl, vice president of Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/event
9 a.m. — Northrop Grumman Corporation conference call to announce its third quarter 2020 financial results. http://investor.northropgrumman.com
9:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual book discussion on Undaunted: My fight Against America’s Enemies, At Home and Abroad, with author John Brennan, former CIA director; and David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
10 a.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual 2020 Genius Machines Summit, with Jane Pinelis, test, evaluation and assessment chief at the Defense Department’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Andrew Brooks, chief data scientist at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Douglas Terrier, NASA chief technologist; and Eileen Vidrine, chief data officer at the Air Force. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/genius-machines
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Toward a Stronger U.S.-Taiwan Relationship,” with Richard Bush, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies; Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project; and Michael Green, Japan chair at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
12:45 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conference: “International Security at the Nuclear Nexus,” with former Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
TBA — Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Nuclear Deterrence” forum with Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Invitation only. Video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org.
9 p.m. Nashville, Tenn. — Belmont University hosts the third presidential debate of 2020 with President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 23
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “The Defense Industrial Base and the Future of Warfare,” with Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md.; Mitch Snyder, president and CEO of Bell; and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow at Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Tackling the Pandemic in Situations of Fragility, Conflict, and Violence, with Assistant Secretary of State for Conflict and Stabilization Operations Denise Natali; Franck Bousquet, senior director of the World Bank’s Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence; and James Schear, adjunct senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
1 p.m. — Policy Exchange webinar: “China’s Relationship with the Rest of the World,” with Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security adviser to the president. Register: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 27
3 p.m. — Heritage Foundation webcast: “The Fight to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine: The Inside Story of the Administration’s Operation Warp Speed,” with Army Gen. Gus Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed; and Matthew Hepburn, M.D., head, vaccine development, Operation Warp Speed. https://www.heritage.org/public-health/event
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 28
9 a.m. — General Dynamics conference call webcast to release third-quarter 2020 financial results. https://www.gd.com/
10:30 a.m. — The Boeing Company releases financial results for the third quarter of 2020, with President and CEO David Calhoun and CFO Greg Smith, executive vice president of enterprise operations. https://investors.boeing.com/investors
12 p.m. — The Association of the U.S. Army AUSA Noon Report webinar, with Maj. Gen. Kevin Vereen, commanding general of U.S. Army Recruiting Command. AUSA membership is not required. Register at https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/SA-Noon-Report
12:30 p.m. — Center for the National Interest webinar: “Time to Accept North Korea As a Nuclear Weapons State?” with Graham Allison professor of government at Harvard University; Ted Galen Carpenter, senior fellow at the CATO institute; Joseph DeTrani, is a former special envoy for six party talks with North Korea; Robert Gallucci was the chief U.S. negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994; and moderated by Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 30
5:30 p.m. — Air Force Association virtual discussion “Airmen in the Fight: AFA Roll Call” with Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson, Air Force vice chief of staff. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The Republican approach to national security … is no matter what we’re spending, no matter how many ships we have, no matter how many planes we have, no matter how many missiles we have, we need more. That’s basically their philosophy, spend more money, buy more stuff.”
Rep. Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, speaking to reporters Wednesday.
