Coal is projected to be the “biggest loser” of the world’s future power grid, according to a study released Tuesday morning.
Coal will represent just 11 percent of global electricity generation by 2050, down from about 38 percent now, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in its “New Energy Outlook.”
At the same time, wind and solar power will produce half of the world’s electricity by midcentury because of rapidly falling costs in producing those sources of energy.
“Coal emerges as the biggest loser in the long run,” said Elena Giannakopoulou, head of energy economics at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “The future electricity system will reorganize around cheap renewables — coal gets squeezed out.”
Solar capacity worldwide will increase by 17 times what it is now, and wind power will experience a sixfold increase.
The use of renewables will increase, the report says, because of the development of cheaper battery storage technology that can capture and hold wind and solar energy for use during times of the day when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.
Prices of lithium-ion batteries, already down by nearly 80 percent per megawatt-hour since 2010, will continue to tumble, Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicted.
The report projects $548 billion being invested in battery capacity by 2050, one-third being installed outside the central power grid system by households and businesses.
Batteries also power electric vehicles, which stand to benefit from cheaper prices.
“The arrival of cheap battery storage will mean that it becomes increasingly possible to finesse the delivery of electricity from wind and solar, so that these technologies can help meet demand even when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining,” said Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East, and Africa for Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “The result will be renewables eating up more and more of the existing market for coal, gas and nuclear.”
The role of natural gas, a fast-rising fossil fuel that is cheaper than coal and produces less carbon dioxide, also will evolve by midcentury.
Natural gas increasingly will be used to provide backup for renewables rather than to produce around-the-clock electricity. Its share of global electricity is projected to decline from 21 percent to 15 percent by 2050.
The dire global outlook for coal comes as the Trump administration is considering bailing out financially struggling coal and nuclear plants by requiring grid operators to buy power from them.
Since 2010, nearly 40 percent of the capacity of the nation’s coal-fired power plants has been shut down or designated for closure, according to the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity, a trade group supporting the industry.
