One month out from the opening contest in Iowa, the 2020 Democratic presidential field still boasts 14 candidates, leaving open the possibility of a drawn-out nomination process.
Although former Vice President Joe Biden leads the crowded pack with an average of 28% support nationwide, the other top three contenders — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg — aren’t far behind in polling and outpace the 36-year Delaware senator in fundraising.
Meanwhile, White House hopefuls, billionaire former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, launched last-minute bids. Others, including Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, are experiencing late surges before the Iowa caucus on Feb. 3.
It could be “a marathon rather than a sprint” before the Democratic nominee is announced, according to Democratic strategist Peter Fenn.
“There is no question for the Democrats that the changes in the rules make it conceivable that this could possibly take a while,” Fenn said, referring to reforms the party introduced for automatic delegates and how most states no longer have “winner-take-all” primary contests. “The second thing is that you have a lot of candidates that, at least currently, are able to get to the 15% threshold and could get delegates and prevent somebody from getting a majority,” he continued.
As President Trump’s reelection campaign reports raising $46 million during the fourth quarter of 2019 to have more than $100 million cash on hand, Fenn noted the fundraising prowess of some on the Democratic side of the ledger.
“You look at someone like Pete Buttigieg or Bernie, who’s got quite a juggernaut. They’re not going to run out of money unless they spend it very unwisely, and so they could keep on going for a while,” he said. “Money for the Democrats is not going to be a problem. Money will pour into whoever the nominee is.”
Staff for Biden, 77, have tried to manage expectations about how he’ll compete for Iowa’s 49 delegates and then New Hampshire’s 33 delegates a week later, when that state’s primary is held on Feb. 11. Biden’s aides have also been relatively opaque about how he’ll play with Nevada’s 48 delegates, largely allocated via caucuses on Feb. 22, while relying heavily on South Carolina’s 63 delegates when the majority black primary electorate goes to the polls on Feb. 29. Then on March 3, 14 states will weigh in on who should be the party’s next standard-bearer, including California, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, as well as a slew in the South. All told, 1,603 delegates will be up for grabs on “Super Tuesday,” with 1,990 delegates needed for the right to challenge Trump in the general election.
