Republicans’ underperformance this week in the midterm elections extended all the way down the ballot, with the GOP potentially poised to lose control of four or more state legislative chambers in the face of stronger-than-expected support for Democrats.
Democrats appear to have flipped chambers in multiple states they targeted, while Republicans did not win over any of the vulnerable Democratic-controlled chambers their campaign arm contested.
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The implications of those Democratic gains could be massive. Many states in the next two years will consider abortion laws they can now decide themselves thanks to the Supreme Court, election reforms that both parties have fought over bitterly, and new restrictions or allowances for controversial material in the classroom.
Republicans did make inroads into blue-state legislatures where they remain in the minority. GOP candidates appear to have won enough seats in the Oregon Senate to take away the Democrats’ supermajority in the chamber and could possibly do so in the Oregon House when the votes are all in.
Republicans won seven of the nine Long Island races for seats in the New York Assembly and overall unseated at least six incumbents in the state Assembly, as well as made gains in the New York Senate, according to a memo obtained by the Washington Examiner that the Republican State Leadership Committee sent to donors Friday. The RSLC is the Republicans’ campaign arm for state legislative races.
Republicans also expanded their hold on chambers in red states. In Florida, for example, the GOP secured a supermajority in both chambers.
Before Election Day, Republicans had unified control of the legislatures in 30 states, while Democrats had unified control in 17 states. Minnesota and Virginia had divided state governments after Republicans flipped the Virginia Assembly in 2021.
But Democratic gains loosened the GOP’s grip on state-level politics in key battlegrounds on Tuesday.
In Michigan, Democrats said they took control of both chambers for the first time since 1984 — although votes in some races were still being counted as of Friday. That change would pave the way for Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to pass her agenda easily in her new term by giving her party a governing trifecta.
Democrats managed to flip control of the Minnesota Senate after both parties fought to land unified control of a state legislature that had been divided.
Democrats previously held the Minnesota House by a four-seat majority; they emerged from Election Day with a slightly larger six-seat majority. They erased Republicans’ one-seat majority in the state Senate to secure their own one-seat hold on the chamber.
With a Democratic governor at the helm of the state, the party now has a much clearer path to passing its legislative agenda.
And in Pennsylvania, Democrats were also on track as of Friday to split the state legislature by retaking the Pennsylvania House, with votes still being counted.
The RSLC had poured millions of dollars into trying to take back vulnerable Democratic state legislatures in Colorado, Maine, Nevada, and Oregon, as well as the Minnesota House. Although votes are still being counted in close races across the country, they have so far failed to do any of that.
Republicans also invested in defending their most vulnerable GOP majorities in the state legislatures of Arizona, Michigan, and New Hampshire, as well as the Minnesota Senate.
But Democratic groups dramatically outspent Republicans in the battle for state legislatures. Two liberal groups and the Democrats’ state legislature campaign arm, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, together spent at least $125 million on contesting state legislative races this cycle, while Republicans spent just $30 million, the RSLC memo said.
“A big challenge we faced this year was that the nine chambers Democrats targeted were in states where statewide races attracted national attention and heavy outside spending,” the memo to donors said. “This muddied our advertising and voter contact, allowing national narratives to overshadow the strong record of achievements Republicans in those states ran on. In every state where we lost a chamber or have potential to lose a chamber (Pennsylvania), Republicans did not win a single statewide election.”
The results of some potentially close contests have not yet become clear, making a full assessment of how state legislative wins or losses fit into the broader picture of the midterm elections impossible.
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Republicans have spent days slamming the slow vote-counting process in Arizona, which has delayed the results of key U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests well past Election Day.
But they would have little recourse to address the problem without keeping control of the state legislature. The ability to approve changes that would speed the vote count, as well as other changes to voting laws, rests in part with state lawmakers.
Republicans were fighting to protect their majorities in the Arizona legislature this year, and although the results were not yet clear as of Friday, Democrats were leading in the statewide contests on the third day of tabulating ballots — suggesting the same dynamic that has played out in other competitive states could cost the GOP state legislative seats in Arizona too.
