CHINA HAWKS SEEK SHIFT AWAY FROM UKRAINE: Just as Ukraine is facing a critical inflection point in what the Pentagon sees as a small window to break through Russian lines and reclaim the momentum in the yearlong war, there are Republicans in Congress who argue now is the time for the U.S. to scale back its support to Kyiv.
Among those advocating a turn away from Ukraine is Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), who is scheduled to deliver an address today at the Heritage Foundation, in which he will advocate a defense policy that prioritizes China as America’s biggest threat and “challenges the consensus on Ukraine.” The speech will focus on “key decisions America must make to deter China – including doing less in Ukraine,” according to a press release from his office.
“I want the Europeans on the continent there to do the heavy lifting when it comes to supporting Ukraine,” Hawley told St. Louis television station KSDK last week. “Obviously I want to see Russia defeated …There’s no doubt about any of that.”
“The question is, what are America’s interests in the midst of this? Is our interest in nation-building in Ukraine? And by that I mean writing checks directly to the Ukrainian government,” Hawley said. “That’s what we’re doing and have been doing for months. What we should be doing is saying to the Europeans, Germany at the front of the list, you need to take the first priority, the lead in defending Ukraine and standing up to Russia. We will prioritize China.”
NATO DISCUSSES MAJOR INCREASE IN DEFENSE SPENDING ACROSS ALLIANCE
THE ‘UKRAINE FATIGUE’ RESOLUTION: Hawley is in the minority in his party, but he’s not alone. Last week, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) introduced a resolution that would express to the House that it’s time to cut off U.S. assistance to Ukraine’s war effort.
Dubbed the “Ukraine Fatigue Resolution,” the symbolic bill has no chance of enactment, but it did attract 10 hard-right cosponsors: Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Paul Gosar (R-AZ), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL), Thomas Massie (R-KY), Mary Miller (R-IL), Barry Moore (R-AL), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT).
The complaints about the high cost of U.S. aid come as a survey conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that while Americans still think the U.S. should play “at least some role in the war,” support for specific interventions like supplying weapons is “waning.”
MCCAUL: ‘THEY JUST WANT TO KNOW WHERE THE MONEY’S GONE’: The new chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee says many who are wavering on funding for Ukraine are concerned about how the money is being spent.
“You’ve got people in the fringe elements on both sides that are just dug in. You have a lot of people in the middle on my side of the aisle who are just being a little bit quiet to see how the winds blow because their big question is, ‘I just want to know where the money’s gone,’” Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX) said in an interview with the Washington Examiner to be published tomorrow.
“If I can explain that to them, and explain the accountability and the audits taking place … and then bring the Trump national security team in to say that this is the right foreign policy. I think those combined would go a long ways,” McCaul said. “What I want to do is basically be able to tell the story of where the money has gone. A third of it’s gone into replenishing our stockpile and modernizing our weapon systems, a third is going to our defense contractors to make new weapons, which we really need, and then a third’s going into Ukraine.”
“I mean, with less than 3% of our Department of Defense budget, they’ve annihilated the Russian military, they’ve humiliated them,” McCaul added. “Without one American soldier, which is key.”
RUSSIA CONTINUES TO POUR ‘ILL-TRAINED’ TROOPS INTO UKRAINE, AUSTIN SAYS
Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Monday, Feb. 20, as we observe the Presidents Day federal holiday. We’ll be back in your inbox and online Tuesday, Feb. 21.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Tallinn, Estonia, and is scheduled to hold a joint news conference with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pekvur at 8:45 a.m.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are in Germany for the annual Munich Security Conference, where observers will be watching to see whether Blinken might meet on the sidelines with top Chinese foreign policy official Wang Yi, who is also attending the conference.
“I think having open lines of communication,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on CNN. “In order to do that, you have to have somebody to talk to.”
“It is alarming to hear our defense establishment say that, in fact, they picked up the phone and called and there was no answer at the other end. That cannot be between two nations, especially nations that may be on a potential collision course at some point in time in the future,” said Menendez, who is part of the large congressional delegation attending the conference. “I think on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which I’ll be at, I think it makes sense to at least establish those lines of communication to deconflict and avoid such conflict.”
JAPAN MULLS POLICY TO SHOOT DOWN CHINA’S SPY BALLOONS
AUSTIN: NO ONE HAS FESSED UP: In an interview last night on NBC Nightly News, Austin said no one has claimed ownership of the three small balloon-like objects shot down over North America.
“No, they haven’t. No,” Austin told NBC’s Courtney Kube. “There are rules that people should follow, and if you’re going to want something that’s operating in those spaces, the FAA should be notified and permission should be requested.”
Austin rejected the idea that because smaller objects have traversed the skies over the U.S. for years undetected, there has been an “intelligence failure.”
“No, it’s it’s how you use your radars,” he said. “They recently made some adjustments on our radars and opened up the aperture, and they’re analyzing the data a bit differently. We typically are focused on things that are moving fast and so it’s a bit more difficult to collect on slow-moving objects like a balloon, and as they made adjustments, they were able to see some of that.”
DEFENSE SECRETARY SAYS HE’S ‘NOT AWARE OF ANY’ NEW OBJECTS OVER US AIRSPACE
WES CLARK: PUTIN’S MIND IS THE ENEMY: Retired Gen. Wes Clark, former supreme NATO commander, says the war in Ukraine will not end until Russia’s “center of gravity” is destroyed, and he argues that, unlike some wars where victory can be secured through battlefield success, Russian President Vladimir Putin is so desperate to win, he has to be crushed psychologically.
“What is the enemy center of gravity here that we’re working against? It’s Mr. Putin’s mind when he believes he cannot succeed. That’s when this war will end,” Clark said at an Atlantic Council virtual forum Tuesday. “That’s the center of gravity, not tens of thousands of Russian troops dead.”
“So Ukraine cannot afford battlefield failure, Russia can afford many battlefield casualties and failure as long as Putin believes he can ultimately succeed,” Clark added. Instead what’s emerged, he said, is a U.S. strategy that is hoping for a “soft failure by both combatants,” which would set the conditions for negotiations. “That’s a policy that’s unlikely to produce lasting success. The reason is, Mr. Putin is determined to take Ukraine. He wants it, he wants it because he fears China in the long term. And without Ukraine, Russia is a rump state.”
“Vladimir Putin recognizes that this war is unsustainable on the battlefield because of the horrific losses that Russians are taking,” said retired Gen. David Petraeus at the same event. But Putin, he argues, believes he can “out-suffer” Ukraine. “The Ukrainians, Europeans and Americans, we have to prove him wrong in that regard.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: NATO discusses major increase in defense spending across alliance
Washington Examiner: Russia continues to pour ‘ill-trained’ troops into Ukraine, Austin says
Washington Examiner: Japan mulls policy to shoot down China’s spy balloons
Washington Examiner: Defense secretary says he’s ‘not aware of any’ new objects over US airspace
Washington Examiner: China and Mexico refuse to cooperate with US against fentanyl suppliers, federal officials say
Washington Examiner: Paul Whelan’s sister speaks out against critics of Brittney Griner swap
Washington Examiner: Black Hawk helicopter crash kills two, leaves no survivors in Alabama
Washington Examiner: Biden faces calls to investigate links between Chinese spy balloon and illegal trade practices
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Keep focused on China’s vast espionage campaign
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why China feels particular global pressure over balloongate
Politico: Lawmakers Seize on Spy Balloon to Inflate Defense Spending
Wall Street Journal: U.S., China Diplomats See Chance To Clear The Air Over Balloon
CNN: U.S. Intel Assessing Possibility That Chinese Spy Balloon’s Path Over US Was Accidental
Breaking Defense: NATO Vows More Ammo and ‘Additional Capabilities’ to Boost Ukraine Spring Offensive
New York Times: After Heavy Losses, Doubts Emerge Anew About Russia’s Might
Reuters: Russia Declares Battlefield Gains As NATO Ramps Up Support For Ukraine
Red Snow: Ukraine’s supporters scramble to get weapons into the fight, to repeat — not rewrite — history
AP: How Ukraine War Has Shaped U.S. Planning For A China Conflict
Breaking Defense: Naval Intelligence Admiral: ‘Naïve’ American Public Has A ‘China Blindness’ Problem
AP: China Threatens U.S. ‘Entities’ Over Downing Of Balloon
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senators Sound Out Policy Experts on Aircraft for Ukraine, Defending Taiwan
Washington Post: TikTok’s CEO Launches Aggressive Push To Fend Off A Ban Of Popular App
Defense One: ‘We Didn’t Have the Ships’ to Send ‘Best Option’ to Help Earthquake Victims, Commandant Says
Defense News: U.S. Working With ‘Five Eyes’ Nations, Japan On Information Warfare
Defense News: Pentagon Technology Chief Seeks Low-Cost Deterrence Concepts
Air & Space Forces Magazine: KC-135s, RC-135s Stand Down Pending Safety Inspections
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Russian Air Force ‘Has Lot of Capability Left’ One Year On From Ukraine Invasion
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Despite Inflation’s Bite, China Set Record for Defense Spending in 2022
19fortyfive.com: KF-21 Boramae: South Korea’s New ‘Stealthy’ Fighter Could Be a True Game Changer
19fortyfive.com: The F-35 Just Showed the World That Russia’s Su-75 Is a Joke
The Hill: Mackenzie Eaglen: For better defense spending, split the Pentagon’s budget into two
Forbes: The Military’s Vision Of Joint, All-Domain Warfare Is Doomed Without A Robust Identity Tool
Calendar
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 16
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Va. — Potomac Officers Club annual Artificial Intelligence Summit, with Craig Martell, chief digital and artificial intelligence officer at the Defense Department; and Lakshmi Raman, director of artificial intelligence at the CIA https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-4th-annual-artificial-intelligence-summi
8:45 a.m. Tallinn, Estonia — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin holds a news conference with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pekvur https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/
9:30 a.m. — Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty virtual discussion: “Clearing the Air: Russian Disinformation and the War in Ukraine,” with Ukrainian Minister of Culture and Information Policy Oleksandr Tkachenko; Olga Rudenko, chief editor of the Kyiv Independent; Peter Dickinson, chief editor of Business Ukraine magazine; and Natalie Sedletska, acting Kyiv bureau chief of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service https://zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Domestic Extremist Threat,” with former FBI Special Agent Michael German, fellow at the New York University Brennan Center for Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program https://germanfeb2023.splashthat.com
11:30 a.m. Senate Radio/TV Gallery, U.S. Capitol — Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC); Richard Blumenthal (D-CN); and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) news conference to discuss the “Holding Accountable Russian Mercenaries (HARM) Act,” legislation to designate the Russian-based Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization.
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: “China and Ukraine: A Time for Truth,” with Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/china-and-ukraine-time-truth
12 p.m. 7805 Regents Dr., College Park, Md. — University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies Global Forum: “Black Sea Security Conundrum: Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://cissm.umd.edu/events/cissm-global-forum
12 p.m. — McCain Institute virtual book discussion: Lessons from the Edge: A Memoir, focusing on advancing democracy in the post-Soviet world and the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump, with author and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual Global Risk Conference: “Russia and the West: All Bridges Burned?” with Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator; Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies; and Kadri Liik, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion: “The Implications of Russia’s War on Ukraine: Identity, Politics, Governance,” with Volodymyr Dubovyk, associate professor at Odesa I.I. Mechnikov National University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/implications-russias-war-ukraine
4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Entering a New Era for US-Japan Defense Integration,” with James Schoff, senior director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation’s U.S.-Japan NEXT Alliance Initiative https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
4:30 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: “The North Korean Threat and Allied Policy Options,” with Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-north-korean-threat
4:30 p.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Inside Look at Biden’s Ukraine Strategy,” with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/16/carnegie-connects
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 17
TBA Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference 2023 begins, running through Sunday, Feb. 19 https://securityconference.org
2 p.m. Intelligence Squared virtual live debate recording: “Should The U.S. Ban TikTok?” with Kori Schake, senior fellow and director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute, arguing “Yes”; and Milton Mueller, professor, Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy, founder and director, Internet Governance Project, arguing “No.” Moderated by John Donvan https://www.workcast.com/register
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 21
9 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute podcast The Eastern Front and American Purpose event: “Russia’s War on Ukraine at Year One,” with retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander; retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe; retired Adm. Jamie Foggo, former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe; Iulia Joja, senior fellow, Middle East Institute; Giselle Donnelly, senior fellow in defense and national security at AEI; and Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow, AEI https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register
10:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual event: “A Mid-Term Report Card for Biden’s North Korea Policy,” with Robert Carlin, nonresident fellow, 38 North, nonresident scholar, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Susan Thornton, visiting lecturer in law and senior fellow, Paul Tsai China Center; Jenny Town, senior fellow, Stimson Center, director, 38 North; and Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; and Joel Wit, distinguished fellow in Asian and security studies, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/a-mid-term-report-card-for-bidens-north-korea-policy
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” virtual book discussion of Remember the Ramrods: An Army Brotherhood in War and Peace, with author and Medal of Honor recipient David Bellavia, the only living recipient of the nation’s highest valor award for actions in Iraq https://www.bigmarker.com/ausaorg/Remember-the-Ramrods
1 p.m. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Lessons of Ukraine for the Role of Values in Foreign Policy,” with Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, executive vice president, Freedom House; Richard Fontaine, CEO, Center for a New American Security; Ash Jain, director for democratic order, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council; and Tod Lindberg, senior fellow, Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/lessons-ukraine-role-values-foreign-policy
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 22
9:30 a.m. — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Assessing US Military Assistance to Ukraine,” with Missy Ryan, the Washington Post; Elias Yousif, research analyst, Stimson Center; and Rachel Stohl, director, Conventional Defense Program, vice president, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/assessing-us-military-assistance-to-ukraine
10 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress Russia Policy Program virtual event: “The Militaries of Russia and Ukraine One Year Into the War,” with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno and Nora Bensahel, authors of Adaptation Under Fire; Michael Kofman, director of CNA’s Russia Studies Program; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence & Global Affairs https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 23
1:30 p.m. — The Cipher Brief virtual briefing: “DIA’s Global Intelligence Picture,” with Trent Maul, director for analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency https://www.thecipherbrief.com
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 24
2:15 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person discussion: “Russia’s War on Ukraine: What Lies Ahead in 2023?” with Leon Aron, senior fellow, AEI; George Barros, Russia analyst, Institute for the Study of War; Nataliya Bugayova, nonresident Russia fellow, ISW; Mason Clark, senior analyst, ISW; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst, ISW; Karolina Hird, Russia analyst, ISW; Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project, AEI; Kimberly Kagan, president, ISW; former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH); and Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/russias-war-on-ukraine-what-lies-ahead
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We’re at an inflection point in world history with this battle after this is settled. However it’s settled — if Ukraine succeeds in driving out Russia from its territories, if Ukraine fails and ends up as a rump state, if the West holds together or if the West comes apart — moving forward will be different. However this ends, this is a very, very significant moment in world history.”
Retired Gen. Wes Clark, former supreme allied commander, speaking at an Atlantic Council forum, “What does Ukraine need to win in 2023?”
