NATIONAL SECURITY ON THE BALLOT: It’s not the top issue in any of the recent voter surveys, but how voters cast their ballots today could have profound implications for a range of national security issues from limiting U.S. aid for Ukraine to dialing back so-called woke policies at the Pentagon.
The prize in one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent memory is control of Congress, and with it the ability to advance or block the agenda of President Joe Biden in the second half of his term in office. All 435 House seats are up for grabs, along with 35 seats in the Senate. The Republicans need only gain five seats in the House and one in the Senate to wrest full control from the Democrats.
‘NO BLANK CHECKS’: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who insists he has the votes to become speaker if Republicans reclaim the House, said that while he’s “very supportive” of aid to Ukraine and wants to do more to arm Taiwan faster in the face of increasing threats from China, he’s sticking to his recent “no blank checks” pledge.
“It means no blank checks for anything. It means no blank checks for any other policy,” McCarthy told CNN in an interview that aired yesterday. “I think there has to be accountability brought forth. We have a $31 trillion debt. I think the American people deserve that.”
“I’m very supportive on Ukraine,” he said. “We should supply the weapons to Taiwan early so China would not invade, make the world a safer and more secure place. And that’s why I think you always need not a blank check but make sure that resources are going where it’s needed and make sure that Congress and the Senate have the ability to debate it openly.”
MCCARTHY REITERATES SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE BUT ‘NOT A BLANK CHECK’
‘WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT OVER AID TO UKRAINE’: Despite McCarthy’s assurances, Democrats fear that support for the billions in U.S. military assistance for Ukraine will erode, especially with the possibility of ultra-MAGA firebrands such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) assuming leadership roles.
At a Trump rally in Sioux City, Iowa, last week, Greene vowed to cut off aid completely. “Democrats have ripped our border wide open, but the only border they care about is Ukraine, not America’s southern border,” Greene said. “Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first.”
“It may not be the No. 1 issue in this election, but it is really important to understand,” said Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), who is fighting to retain his seat in a district that is leaning Republican.
“If Kevin McCarthy is speaker and Marjorie Taylor Greene and the dozen other Marjorie Taylor Greene’s that are getting elected across the country have the majority, we are going to have to fight over aid to Ukraine,” Malinowski said on CNN. “And I am very worried about that.”
HERE’S WHERE THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS WILL BE WON AND LOST ACROSS THE COUNTRY
Good Tuesday morning. It’s Election Day. Welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Election Day, 2022. Despite Democrats arguing that election integrity measures are thinly disguised voter suppression efforts, several states, including Georgia, South Carolina, and Ohio, have already posted record numbers for early in-person, mail-in, and absentee voting.
The last midterm elections in 2018 recorded a 49% nationwide turnout, a 40-year high, and today’s election could well eclipse that record for an off-year election.
JOB ONE: SECURE THE BORDER: Republicans say their first priority should they return to power will be to do something to stem the steady stream of migrants crossing the southern border and stop the flow of deadly fentanyl, which is made in China and controlled by Mexican drug cartels.
“I mean, you’ve got fentanyl coming across in droves, and it’s killing almost 80,000 Americans a year,” said Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX). “Now, that’s a bipartisan issue. It’s got to be. I mean, that’s a unifying issue. This is a common enemy that we’ve got to focus on.”
McCarthy said he favors a return to the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy to prevent asylum-seekers from melting into the general population without ever showing up for their hearings.
“You’ve got to stop the cartels’ control of the border. You’ve got to stop fentanyl from coming across,” said McCarthy in the CNN interview. “Fentanyl, when you think about it, is a chemical of mass destruction. It is killing our next generation. It’s the No. 1 killer of Americans between the ages of 18 and 45.”
MCCARTHY: ENDING BORDER CRISIS FIRST ISSUE OF BUSINESS IF REPUBLICANS WIN MAJORITY
SOME RACES TO WATCH: There could be some changes coming to the Armed Services committees depending on the outcomes of some tight races. Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) in the Senate and Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) in the House are in safe seats, as is the lead Republican on the House committee, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL). Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), who would have been in line to take over as chairman in the event of a Republican takeover, announced his intention to retire earlier this year. So Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), a McConnell ally, would likely assume the post.
Because of the bipartisan tradition on the Armed Services committees, and the understanding of the leadership that they are always just one election away from being in the minority, there is usually little turmoil with the turnover.
But the makeup of the committees could change as some national security veterans fight for their seats and some new faces with military backgrounds win seats. Here are some races to watch.
Luria vs. Kiggans: In Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, a former naval surface warfare officer, is being challenged by Republican Jen Kiggans, a nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot who is serving in the state Senate. The race is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Slotkin vs. Barrett: In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who has held senior positions at the Pentagon and the CIA, is up against Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett in another contest rated a toss-up. Slotkin has been endorsed by Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), the former No. 3 Republican who lost her own bid for reelection in a display of voter backlash for her condemnation of former President Donald Trump.
Spanberger vs. Vega: In Virginia’s 7th District, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA case officer who serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has also picked up an endorsement from Cheney in her tight contest with Republican Yesli Vega, a GOP county official and former police officer who was endorsed by Trump just 11 days ago. Polls show the race too close to predict.
Hassan vs. Bolduc: In one of several close races that could determine control of the Senate, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) is in a surprisingly close race with Republican retired Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc, who has professed the belief that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Given his military background, should Bolduc flip the seat, he may seek to serve on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Democrats worked to help Bolduc win the nomination, in the belief that his election denialism would make him the easier candidate to beat. The race is now neck and neck.
Kelly vs. Masters: Arizona is another battleground that could tip the Senate red. Former astronaut and Navy pilot Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is facing a stiff challenge from Blake Masters, who has pulled within 2 percentage points of Kelly, 45%-47%, according to a recent Fox News poll.
SWALWELL, SCHIFF IN CROSSHAIRS: Two House members who could lose their seats on powerful committees are Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Adam Schiff (D-CA), whom McCarthy has promised to boot from the House Intelligence Committee.
“I’ve been very clear that Eric Swalwell will not serve on Intel, the knowledge that I have based upon the friendship that he had with the Chinese spy,” said McCarthy on CNN, referring to Swalwell being targeted by a Chinese national known as Fang Fang or Christine Fang, several years ago. “If he cannot get a security clearance in the private sector, he should not be given government security clearance either.”
“Adam Schiff should not be serving on Intel either, after lying to the American public and missing, as the chair of Intel, what was going on in Afghanistan and others just to play politics,” I think that’s wrong as well.”
WOMAN SUSPECTED OF BEING CHINESE SPY TARGETED ERIC SWALWELL AND OTHER POLITICIANS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Western aid to Ukraine is ‘a model to avoid nuclear wars’: Zelensky
Washington Examiner: Another American killed fighting with Ukrainian military
Washington Examiner: Kevin McCarthy reiterates support for Ukraine but ‘not a blank check’
Washington Examiner: McCarthy: Ending border crisis first issue of business if Republicans win majority
Washington Examiner: World’s largest plane, destroyed early in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, being rebuilt in ‘secret location’
Washington Examiner: Zelensky warns of further attacks on Ukrainian electrical infrastructure
Washington Examiner: Army initiates first-of-its-size battery project in latest sign of a greening military
AP: Putin-linked businessman admits to US election meddling
Washington Post: Heavy Russian Casualties Spur Outcry, Rare Official Reply
USNI News: Russian Navy Pulls Warships From Black Sea Into Port After Attacks
Stars and Stripes: Ukrainian Drone Attack Could Be Precursor To New Maritime Fight In War With Russia
Wall Street Journal: Russia Presses Evacuation Of Kherson As Ukrainian Offensive Looms
New York Times: Why Kherson, Bracing For Battle, Matters So Much To Moscow And Kyiv
Washington Post: Russian Oligarch Brags He’s ‘Interfering’ In U.S. Midterms
USNI News: Pentagon Adds 40 Armored Patrol Boats To Latest Ukraine Military Aid Package
The Atlantic: Taiwan Prepares to Be Invaded
USNI News: China Will Increase Pressure On Taiwan In Next Two Years Rather Than Invade, Says Pentagon Official
Air & Space Forces Magazine: NASAMS Arrive in Ukraine in US Bid to Bolster Air Defense
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USSF’s Bythewood Takes Command of Joint ‘Space Troopers’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: T-38 Crashes Near Columbus AFB—Pilot OK
Task & Purpose: Marines May Charge Parris Island Drill Instructor For Recruit’s Death In 2021
Orange County Register: New Effort To Keep Talented Marines In The Service Helps Hit Recruitment Goals
The Drive: Ballistic Missile Wreckage From North Korean Test Recovered
AP: N. Korea Denies U.S. Claims It Sent Artillery Shells To Russia
Kyodo News Service: U.S. Eyes Aircraft Carrier Deployment If North Korea Conducts Nuke Test
19fortyfive.com: What Makes North Korea’s Special Forces So Dangerous
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s New Stealth Fighters: Meet the Su-57 and Su-75
19fortyfive.com: Watch Out, Putin: Ukraine Will Soon Have ‘Super’ T-72B Tanks
19fortyfive.com: Putin Could Start a Nuclear War in Ukraine He Can’t Win
C4ISRNET: Opinion: Send Ukraine C-RAMs and VAMPIREs to help defeat Iranian drones
Calendar
TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 8
8 a.m. 14750 Conference Center Dr., Chantilly, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Belvoir “Industry Days” forum, with Young Bang, principal deputy assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Jennifer Swanson, deputy assistant Army secretary for data, engineering, and software; and Leslie Sofocleous, executive director of the Veterans Affairs Department’s Electronic Health Record Modernization Integration Office’s Program Management Office https://www.fbcinc.com/e/AFCEABelvoir/attendeereg.aspx
8 a.m. — Wilson Center Asia Program and Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “Avoiding Meltdowns and Blackouts: Confidence-building in Inter-Korean Engagement on Nuclear Safety and Energy Development,” with Francesca Giovannini, executive director of Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom; Siegfried Hecker, professor at Texas A&M University; Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey’s East Asia Nonproliferation Project; Jina Kim, professor at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Jihwan Hwang, professor at the University of Seoul; Dong-Yub Kim, professor at the University of North Korean Studies; and Byong-Chul Lee, professor at Kyungnam University https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/avoiding-meltdowns-blackouts
1 p.m. — George Mason University School of Policy and Government, the GMU Center for Global Islamic Studies, the GMU Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, and the Arab Studies Institute virtual discussion: “Iran in Revolt: What is Different Today?” with Peyman Jafari, assistant professor of history and international relations at the College of William and Mary. Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/@flowbetter
1 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Protecting Gender and Sexual Minorities During Armed Conflict,” with Victor Madrigal-Borloz, independent expert on sexual orientation and gender identity at the United Nations Commission on Human Rights; London Bell, executive committee co-chairwoman of the U.S. Civil Society Working Group on Women, Peace, and Security; Joseph Sany, vice president of USIP’s Africa Center; and Kathleen Kuehnast, USIP’s director of gender policy and strategy https://www.usip.org/events/protecting-gender-and-sexual-minorities
3:30 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “By, With, and Through Partner Special Forces in the Middle East,” with Katie Crombe, affiliated scholar at the MEI Defense and Security Program; Michael Nagata, senior fellow on national security at MEI; retired Gen. Joseph Votel, senior fellow on national security at MEI and former CENTCOM commander; and Bilal Saab, senior fellow and founding director of the MEI Defense and Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/and-through-partner-special-forces-middle-east
3:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual Twitter Space discussion: “Syria, Russia, and the War in Ukraine,” with Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser at the USIP Middle East and North Africa Center, and Heather Ashby, senior program officer at the USIP Center for Russia and Europe https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-syria-russia-and-war-ukraine
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — Politics and Prose book discussion on Accidental Czar: The Life and Lies of Vladimir Putin, with author Andrew Weiss, vice president of studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, witness at former President Donald Trump’s first Senate impeachment trial http://www.politics-prose.com
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 9
8 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Naval Intelligence Professionals Navy Information Warfare Industry Day forum, with Vice Adm. Jeff Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare; Scott Bray, deputy director of naval intelligence and director of the Naval Intelligence Activity; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; Rear Adm. John Okon, director of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations’s Warfare Integration Directorate; Kelly McCool, director of the Navy Digital Warfare Office; Rear Adm. Fred Pyle, director of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations’s Surface Warfare Division; Sandy Brown, assistant deputy director of the Office of Naval Intelligence and deputy director of the Naval Intelligence Activity; Vice Adm. Kelly Aeschbach, commander of Naval Information Forces; Vice Adm. Craig Clapperton, commander of the U.S. Fleet Cyber Command; and Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and director of the National Maritime Intelligence Integration Office https://www.afcea.org/navy-information-warfare-industry-day
8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: ”U.S.-China Relations After the Midterms,” with Da Wei, director of Tsinghua University’s Center for International Strategy and Security; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Chong Ja Ian, nonresident scholar at Carnegie China; and Paul Haenle, visiting research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/09/carnegie-china-global-dialogue
8:15 a.m. 14750 Conference Center Dr., Chantilly, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Belvoir “Industry Days” forum, with Army Maj. Gen. Anthony Potts, program executive officer for command, control, and communications; Carlen Capenos, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Office of Small Business Programs; and Valerie Oliver, deputy director of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’s Office of Small Business https://www.fbcinc.com/e/AFCEABelvoir/attendeereg.aspx
9 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Xi’s Sweep: Beyond China’s 20th Party Congress,” with panel discussions on “Chinese Domestic Politics” and “China’s Foreign Policy” https://www.brookings.edu/events/xis-sweep
9 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd., McLean, Virginia — Government Executive Media Group and Washington Technology Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification 2.0 Ecosystem Summit, with Kelley Kiernan, chief technology officer of the Navy Small Business Innovation Research/Small Business Technology Transfer program, and Kimberly Buehler, director for the Office of Small Business Programs at the Army https://events.bizzabo.com/washtechCMMC/home
10 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd., McLean, Virginia — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “What China’s Strategic Breakout Means for the U.S,” with Brad Roberts, former deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear and missile defense policy, and Franklin Miller, principal at the Scowcroft Group and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/what-chinas-strategic-breakout-means-the-us
4:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu Contact: Thom Shanker [email protected]
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Saudi Rift: Economic Disagreement or Geopolitical Realignment?” with Hala Aldosari, Saudi scholar and activist; Giorgio Cafiero, founder and CEO of Gulf States Analytics; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy; Manal Shehabi, academic visitor at the University of Oxford’s St. Antony’s College; and Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Middle East Program https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Saudi Arabia and Oil: Between the U.S. and Russia,” with Guy Laron, senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bessma Momani, professor of political science at the University of Waterloo; and Stephen Kalin, reporter at the Wall Street Journal https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/saudi-arabia-and-oil
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft webinar: “How Will Midterm Outcomes Affect U.S. Policy on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?” with George Beebe, director, grand strategy, Quincy Institute; Rachel Bovard, senior director of policy, Conservative Partnership Institute; Jacob Heilbrunn, editor, the National Interest; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser, Quincy Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 14th St. and F St. N.W.— National Press Club’s American Legion Post 20 meeting with a discussion: on “The war in Ukraine and efforts to get accurate information into Ukraine and Russia,” with Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman https://www.press.org/newsroom https://us02web.zoom.us
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 11
9 a.m. World War II Memorial, 1750 Independence Ave. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony “to honor the more than 16 million men and women who served with the U.S. Armed Forces during World War II” and “in remembrance of the more than 400,000 Americans and 60 million people killed worldwide during the deadliest military conflict in human history.” Livestream at https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I mean, you’ve got fentanyl coming across in droves, and it’s killing almost 80,000 Americans a year. Now, that’s a bipartisan issue. It’s got to be. I mean, that’s a unifying issue. This is a common enemy that we’ve got to focus on.”
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), telling CNN that securing the southern border will be the first thing Republicans try to do if they take control of Congress
