Ruling on Thursday that Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic breached European Union law by refusing to admit refugees, the European Court of Justice inadvertently gave a gift to Viktor Orban. The ruling will reinforce the Hungarian Prime Minister’s narrative that he alone can be trusted to protect his nation.
The European Court of Justice, which has supreme authority, even over national supreme courts, to make legal rulings on EU member states, says that the three nations were “precluded” from using national security as an excuse to prevent admission of refugees. This was because the three nations failed to establish “any direct relationship with a particular [refugee] case to justify suspending the implementation of or even ceasing to implement its obligations under the relocation decisions.” A fine from the European Commission is likely to follow.
But this is not going to play very well for the EU in Hungary. Pro-government media is frequently filled with stories which suggest that the EU elites treat Hungary unfairly and retain a special bias against Orban. The court’s judgment will fit nicely into that narrative.
Moreover, it’s not at all clear what the EU thinks it can achieve here. While Orban’s executive power grab this week was deeply authoritarian and concerning, the 10-year prime minister retains widespread domestic support. And, in large part, that’s because Orban is seen to represent a politics that blends nationalism and values-traditionalism with economic modernity. We might care about refugees fleeing war, but these Hungarians believe those refugees represent an existential threat to their way of life. In turn, how do you think they’ll view this latest EU overreach?
The EU’s supreme court has told Hungary that it broke the law by failing to accept refugees that other, non-Hungarian politicians demanded it accept. The refugee crisis has led to a deep sense of anger among many European populations, greatly weakening Chancellor Angela Merkel, for example. So it’s hard to see how this ruling will be a winning strategy for the EU to regain trust with the very voters it is supposed to serve. And when the EU commission issues its fine, Orban will rail against yet another attack on his nation’s dignity, and he will have a point.
Once again, we’re seeing the EU’s arrogant dismissal of the concerns of many Europeans. This political union keeps finding new ways to drive more support away from it. Once the coronavirus is wrapped up, expect to see more Brexits.
