Sen. Joe Manchin and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are infrastructure.
While there are many players in this process, the centrist Democrat from West Virginia and the left-wing second-term Democratic congresswoman from New York are the two most important lawmakers for President Joe Biden’s two-pronged approach to infrastructure.
“It is a delicate dance, or in this case a ballet, with Manchin and Ocasio-Cortez as awkward partners,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “It reminds me of Eric Redmond’s classic book on Congress, The Dance of Legislation.”
SHADES OF PAST CONSERVATIVE REVOLTS APPEAR IN GOP INFRASTRUCTURE SPLIT
Just as it takes two to tango, Biden wants to pass two separate pieces of legislation. One is the bipartisan infrastructure package that cleared the Senate on Tuesday with 19 Republicans joining all 50 Democrats in voting yes. The other is the Democrats-only reconciliation bill that prevailed in a key Senate procedural vote early Wednesday morning.
Both dance partners want to lead. Manchin could doom the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill, which goes beyond brick-and-mortar projects to fund an array of liberal policy priorities, all by himself in a 50-50 Senate. However, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona Democrat, may help with that effort.
Ocasio-Cortez could enlist her colleagues in “the Squad“ to tank the bipartisan bill, which they fear will be used by moderates and Republicans to sandbag their left-wing wish list. House Democratic leaders can only afford to lose four votes, which is why Speaker Nancy Pelosi has hinted both bills need to pass her chamber.
To the most liberal Democrats, Biden’s opening bid of $2.25 trillion was the compromise. Some of their plans stretched as far as $10 trillion. To them, a $1.2 trillion bipartisan package with only $550 billion in new spending doesn’t go far enough. But both Manchin and Sinema have said the $3.5 trillion reconciliation price tag is too much.
Something has got to give.
“I’m naturally not going to negotiate from here, not that any of you are expecting me to do that,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Wednesday. “I will say that what is vital to the president is that — and what [Senate Majority] Leader [Chuck] Schumer also reiterated in his press conference this morning — is that this reconciliation package includes the Build Back Better agenda, key investments in childcare … additional investments in climate change, addressing the climate crisis, additional investments to lower costs for people across the country.”
Biden gave no indication of being bothered by the divisions within his party when he spoke about his economic plans in the East Room at the White House on Wednesday.
“In the past 24 hours, we’ve seen the Senate advance two key pieces of my economic agenda: the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the budget resolution that is the framework for my Build Back Better plan,” he said.
However, neither side has much incentive to budge. Ocasio-Cortez and most of her allies occupy safe blue seats that aren’t at risk in next year’s midterm elections. They are also coming off a major win on getting the national eviction moratorium extended against the Biden administration’s initial inclinations.
But Manchin represents a state that voted for former President Donald Trump twice by about 40 points. He is the last remaining Democrat in its congressional delegation. Squad-style liberals haven’t done well in recent primaries and face long odds in making West Virginia an exception to that trend.
“West Virginia isn’t Brooklyn,” a Democratic operative said. “That’s all I can say every time this comes up.”
Given these dynamics, Biden may need to come in and not only exercise presidential leadership but also draw on his 36 years in the Senate and eight years as vice president, Democrats told the Washington Examiner. Both were treated as major selling points during last year’s campaign.
“This is a true test of President Biden’s legislative skills,” Bannon said. “If he can bring Manchin and AOC together on this groundbreaking infrastructure package, it will be a big victory for his presidency and for the future of our nation. It also would validate the legislative skills he honed during his long career in the U.S. Senate.”
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Biden’s opportunities for major legislative victories, bipartisan or otherwise, will dwindle after this year. Both parties will then be consumed with the midterm elections, making Republicans unwilling to cooperate and Democrats hesitant to take tough votes.
Democrats are defending razor-thin majorities in both houses of Congress. The first midterm election has historically gone against the president’s party, and Biden’s numbers with independents are in decline in a number of public polls.
