Various parties involved in the Syrian civil war are meeting in Sochi, Russia, towards finding a peaceful solution to the bloody seven-year conflict.
Yet even though at least 300,000 people have died in the war, the negotiators will not succeed.
The first problem is that the Astana negotiating track, of which this summit is part, is wholly without credibility. Many Syrian rebels of import are boycotting the negotiations in protest at Russia’s outsize influence over the talks. They recognize that the Astana track isn’t so much about forging a compromise as it is about ensuring Russian interests come first. That’s the difference between the Astana track and the U.N.-led Geneva track, which is supported by the U.S. and the European Union.
So what are Russia’s interests here?
Well, top of the list is Russia’s desire to see Bashar Assad consolidated in power over the longer term, and to see U.S. forces withdrawn from eastern Syria. Assad’s survival is important to Vladimir Putin, not so much for his deference to the Russian leader, but rather because his survival would allow Putin to burnish his own credentials as the top international actor of influence in the broader Middle East. Putin believes that if he can persuade regional states to view him as the go-to guy to achieve their interests, he’ll greatly expand Russia’s economic, military, and political footprint in the region.
Another problem with Astana is that the Russians have no interest in persuading Assad or Iran to make serious concessions to the rebels they are fighting. That’s not surprising. After all, the Russian campaign of support for Assad is proceeding with smooth success. Having desecrated cease-fires with the lie that the rebels were responsible for those breaches, the Russians now have one significant obstacle to Assad’s effective victory: the rebel-held Idlib governate of central-northern Syria.
Thus, while this summit is claimed to be about peace, it’s really about the Russians further dividing the already fragmented Syrian opposition and buying time for their final offensive on Idlib.
The peace talks also serve one further interest: insulating Russia from the war crimes it has committed in Syria.
Whether bombing civilians or preventing international inspectors from gathering evidence of chemical weapons attacks, Russia has recently attracted more negative international attention toward its Syrian conduct. But by holding summits like this one, Putin can distract attention away from what his forces are doing and instead pretend that he’s interested in peace. Many nations are either too scared of Putin or too disinterested in Syria to challenge him, so the Astana waltz rumbles on.
All of this explains why the U.S. and many Syrian rebels are boycotting this latest incarnation of the Astana track. They know the summit for what it is: a very unfunny joke.
