Mark Mills for the Manhattan Institute: The dramatic impact of the shale revolution in restructuring world oil supply has been widely reported and analyzed. Until recently, far less attention has been afforded to the implications of the contemporaneous — and, in some ways, more remarkable — rise of U.S. natural gas. U.S. shale technology was responsible for nearly one-third of the world’s increased production of natural gas over the past decade: the Middle East was slightly ahead, accounting for 40 percent of the new supply. And, over that period, American growth in shale gas production added 400 percent more to U.S. energy supply than did the combined growth of wind and solar, even though the latter had the advantage of policy preferences as well as at least $150 billion in subsidies over that period.

In light of physics (discussed below), it is far more likely that wind and solar power will fail to meet forecast expectations than to exceed them. Any shortfall means more demand for natural gas. Fortunately, the U.S. is now the fastest-growing producer and exporter of natural gas. The biggest energy wild card on the near horizon is in how much and how quickly U.S. export capability might yet grow. The U.S. position in world energy markets today is similar to its position circa 1918. At that time, the world demand for oil, thanks to automobiles and airplanes, began a steep ascent. The U.S. became the single largest source of new petroleum and then, for a half-century, the dominant supplier of crude oil to the world. The central energy story today is the fast-growing electrification of the world’s economies, thanks in large measure to the digitalization of everything. With abundant low-cost natural gas becoming the single largest source of new fuel to power grids, the U.S. has the opportunity to once again become a dominant supplier of fuel for global growth.