In November 2016, Republican pollster Ed Goeas was the first to figure out how Donald Trump pulled off the greatest upset since Harry S. Truman.
His polling tracked the 24% “swing vote” who didn’t like Trump or Hillary Clinton, a massive number that by Election Day had shortened to a still sizable 19%. “That swing vote broke 3-to-1 for Trump in the last week of the campaign,” he found.
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