As in the 1880s, we live in an era of polarized partisan parity, in which changes of opinion among independent voters can sweep election results. One year ago, Joe Biden was elected president with 51% of the popular vote. Now, with his job approval below 43%, his party is in trouble.

That’s obvious from Republican Glenn Youngkin’s 51-49 victory to become governor in Virginia, which Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020, and Democrat Phil Murphy’s reelection by only 51-49 in New Jersey, which had gone Biden +16. It’s obvious also that, barring a sudden shift in public opinion, Democrats will surely lose their narrow House majority and likely lose their 50-50 parity in the Senate.