Why February Could Matter

Published February 1, 2012 5:30am ET



I wonder if three features of the race as it stands today aren’t being a bit neglected:

1. Turnout: The Romney-Gingrich slugfest in Florida appears to have produced slightly fewer than 1.7 million voters in this year’s primary. That’s down by about 12 percent from the 1.94 million who voted in 2008. Not a good sign for the GOP in this key swing state, especially following a flat GOP turnout in Iowa and only a slight uptick in New Hampshire (also swing states). Both of those states have open primaries, so with no Democratic contest this year, in contrast to 2008, one might have expected a substantial jump in participation.

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